Highlights from ~95 theses on crypto

95 Theses for 2018On Crypto Prices and “Investing”

1) 2017–2019 will be THE big crypto bubble. Things could get nuttier from here…far nuttier than in the dotcom era. The retail investor base is 10x larger, with 24/7 access to the FOMO and get rich quickism. And we’ve got CNBC to help with the pump!1a) Unbelievably, the institutions will be the last money in this time, with the futures market and custody solutions just coming online, and the mythical ETFs perhaps not too far behind. This has been properly hyped, I think. I could see a Q1-Q2 stampede.

Lots of great ideas in this post from TwoBitIdiot on Medium. Here’s a few more:

3) BTC, ETH, ZEC, and XMR are the main cryptocurrencies. These could still have a LOT of room to run. Money is a reflexive asset where the more people buy it and use it and believe in it, the more valuable it gets. Cryptocurrencies are the ultimate momentum play.

5) Most utility tokens, then, will go to zero, regardless of team quality and execution. You simply don’t need to hold them but for momentum & greater fool investing. When the market lacks “higher order” investors for speculators to flip to, assets will unwind. Viciously.

17) Forks with airdrops will become the preferred alternative to ICOs. You give away free money in order to get people excited about the new and improved project. The only thing they pay is attention. The people who truly buy in become your collaborators

54) Sooner rather than later, the institutions will wise up to the reality that they shouldn’t be paying carry on funds mostly denominated in BTC and ETH. When that happens, you’ll see a massive influx of capital to passive index funds like Bitwise’s HOLD 10.

via 95 Crypto Theses for 2018 – TBI’s Weekly Bits – Medium at Medium

Amazon Go and the Future

The economics of Amazon Go define the tech industry; the strategy, though, is uniquely Amazon’s. Most of all, the implications of Amazon Go explain both the challenges and opportunities faced by society broadly by the rise of tech.

via Amazon Go and the Future at Stratechery by Ben Thompson

More…

Keep in mind, most businesses start out in the red: it usually takes financing, often in the form of a loan, to buy everything necessary to even open the business in the first place; a company is not truly profitable until that financing is retired. Of course once everything is paid off a business is not entirely in the clear: physical objects like shelves or refrigeration units or lights break and wear out, and need to be replaced; until that happens, though, money can be made by utilizing what has already been paid for.

This, though, is why the activity that is accounted for in R&D is so important to tech company profitability: while digital infrastructure obviously needs to be maintained, by-and-large the investment reaps dividends far longer than the purchase of any physical good. Amazon Go is a perfect example: the massive expense that went into developing the underlying system powering cashier-less purchasing does not need to be spent again; moreover, unlike shelving or refrigerators, the output of that expense can be duplicated infinitely without incurring any additional cost.

As always from Stratechery, a great analysis of what Amazon Go means for the future.

 

Another bearish outlookon non-major cryptocurrencies

aside from BTC and ETH, all of the other TOP 10 coins will disappear into oblivion.

as always, lots of links to excellent pieces throughout their weekly post

via Token Economy #30: Gazing into the crypstal ball at Token Economy – Medium

Coinbase’s masterplan to compete with traditional brokerages

What’s lost amid all of this excitement, however, is that Coinbase is quietly and rapidly executing a classic “Trojan Horse” strategy that could ultimately end up with it putting traditional brokerages out of business.

via The Coinbase Master Plan for World Domination: How Traditional Brokerages Are Being Set Up for Disruption at Never Stop Marketing…

Using blockchain technology to more accurately measure value

in any transaction, you want to maximize across a few vectors: value for your customers value for your partners (and employees) value for society value for the planet today value for the planet tomorrow …and probably more

via How Blockchain Technology Can Help Measure Value at Never Stop Marketing…

Decentralized crypto exchanges are the only way forward

Centralized and custodial exchanges are the exact antithesis of why Bitcoin was born and why (we like to think) people spend their time in the crypto world.We are building trustless technology to remove middlemen, monopolies and risk

via ☠ Token Economy #31: Kraken & the death of centralized exchanges at Token Economy – Medium

Is DuckDuckGo an answer for even more privacy

DuckDuckGo is moving beyond search into a broader suite of privacy offerings. They have built up the trust of users over the years and can now apply that to a wider set of problems.

via DuckDuckGo Moves Beyond Search at A VC

Momentum works because it’s the natural evolution of creative destruction

momentum works for a fundamental reason – it’s the natural evolution of creative destruction. You could say that all market cap weighted index funds are momentum funds because they more or less reflect the process by which corporations succeed and fail.

via Why Does Momentum Investing Work? – Pragmatic Capitalism at Pragmatic Capitalism

Blockchain Based AI is Coming

As Deepak Dutt, CEO of AI-based identity proofing company Zighra says, “When data is commoditized, AI algorithms become the most valuable part of the ecosystem.” In other words, we’ll see a power shift from those who own big sets of data to those who build smart, useful algorithms. That’s great, but if we’re moving data to blockchains, some big, thorny questions still exist. For example: Where does the data go? How is it discovered and utilized? Why would people put their data in there? And don’t the “big guys” still have a huge advantage in terms of building powerful AI? Welcome to the world of Blockchain+AI

via Why you want blockchain-based AI (even if you don’t know it yet) at Never Stop Marketing…

Jeremy Epstein on AI for marketing

The AI tools getting created now could become a part of a marketing arms race that gives early adopters a chance to tighten their OODA loops, learn faster, and execute faster which will widen the gap between them and their competition.

via Will AI-as-a-Service Make Marketers Better? at Never Stop Marketing…