Transaction load follows price in crypto is few months old, but new to me. Discovered while looking for NTV calculations, this site is very impressive.

Here’s a few highlights from a post titled Mean-reversion and reflexivity: a Litecoin case study:

Quite simply, this is (early and incomplete) evidence that transaction load follows price. This is a relationship we have noticed in a number of other cryptos over periods in which their market values appreciated rapidly.

There are three broad conclusions we can draw from this story, in order of importance:

  1. Cryptocurrencies exhibit reflexivity
  2. Market to Transaction Value is powerfully mean-reverting, so pay attention to trends.
  3. The better tech may not always win.

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