Weekly Cycle: Market Outlook for 06.04.2018
Each week, we review the stock market using a specific set of information sources in order to cut through the noise generated by media publishing attention grabbing headlines. Weekly updates give e the opportunity to play trends while not overreacting on a daily basis.
“In our ordinary state of mind, we can only achieve ordinary things. All success comes from the ability to transcend routine”
The Unappreciated Key to Success
Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. TraderFeed1
Performance of a handful of macro indexes, as well as index and ETFs on specific sectors of particular interest.
- Homebuilders Index [$XHB] up 4% in last week
- Tech [$QQQ, $HACK, $CQQQ] all up over 25% over last year
- VIX “only” up 8% vs 1 year ago, which is surprising given the narrative of market volatility
Based on data and info from TradingView (Click for 30% off a pro subscription)
Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3).
○ $SPY, $VTI still look strong
○ $MJ looks much improved fr
○ Emerging markets $VWO and $BKF much improved
○ $VIX has dropped significantly since a week ago
OldProf’s Risk Analysis
Each week, at the Dash of Insight blog, OldProf takes a look at a variety of sources to gauge overall market risk on both a short and long-term basis. He tracks a handful of indexes, economic indicators from respected sources, and volatility indicators. His weekly updates include a discussion of events with potential to effect markets, as well as general insight. Highly recommended reading.
This week, OldProf writes that “Short-term trading conditions continue at favorable levels, much improved from the month-ago data“, much improved from the month-ago data.”
“The market reaction suggests that most agree with my assessment: It is a problem, but not an immediate problem.2
Mark Hanna publishes a weekly Market Recap full of charts and insight on news and market trends at StockTrader.
This week, Mark writes:
“Last week was much like the ones we saw throughout 2017! Up, up, up nice and slow… with little volatility.”
“Short term: The S&P 500 finally broke out of this range marked in yellow.”3
Articles of note
“odds of a positive May – October are only slightly below the odds of a positive return from November – April”
Buy in May and Stay Invested
Charlie Bilello pensionpartners.com
“the returns from May through October are still positive, with the average May-October up 3.9% and the median up 5.3%4
“Uber has the biggest advantage of all: the millions of people who already have the app”
The Scooter Economy
Ben Thompson Stratechery by Ben Thompson
“What is striking about dockless scooters — at least when one is parked outside your door! — is that they make ride-sharing services feel like half-measures: why even wait five minutes, when you can just scan-and-go?
$WMT looking ahead – “IBEF projects ecommerce sales in India to surpass the U.S. by 2034”
What the Walmart-Flipkart Deal Means for India
Manish Dudharejia Practical Ecommerce6
“Fox News manipulated the most vulnerable people in America to the most powerful drug cocktail ever: Visceral gut feelings of existential outrage”
“Well it’s obvious now: Partisan conservative politics staged and acted out as performance art was Roger’s “gift” to America. Above all else, Roger understood and practiced the concept of “culture trolling” before the term “trolling” ever became commonly used.
“Each fatality of a self driving car will cut the number of VC’s likely to invest in #AI by half”
AI winter – Addendum
“Same for every AI startup that quietly folds down. At the same time those who already heavily invested, will be pumping the propaganda while quietly trying to liquidate their assets. It is only once there is nobody to buy this, which is long after seed financing had dried out, when the AI winter becomes official.8
$SPLK will “deliver a “platform of engagement” that combines event management, monitoring, on-call management, and ChatOps.”
Splunk to acquire DevOps incident management platform VictorOps for $120 million
Paul Sawers VentureBeat