Predicting where the stock market will go is futile

Good perspective on how to view the stock market from Vitaliy Katsenelson. This was written a few weeks ago after the “correction” early in February:

Nobody but nobody knows what the stock market will do tomorrow, next week or next year. Stock market behavior in the short term is completely random. Completely! You’ll have a better luck predicting the next card at a black jack table than guessing what the stock market will do next.

What will the stock market do next? It’s the wrong question. It’s the question that should never be asked, and if asked should never be answered. Asking this question shows that you believe there is some kind of order to this random madness. There is not. And if you answer with any answer other than “I don’t know,” you’re a liar.

via What will the stock market do next? at Vitaliy Katsenelson Contrarian Edge

Thinking of investing as a game

Graham Duncan on thinking about investing as playing a game:

One of the most important things I’ve learned in that process is what separates the great investors from the rest. The great ones view investing as a game, and they know exactly what game they’re playing. It brings to mind an observation from the philosopher Kwame Anthony Appiah: “In life the challenge is not so much to figure out how best to play the game; the challenge is to figure out what game you’re playing.”

One way to relocate your locus of control is to frame investing (and even life more generally) as a game. This allows you to experience luck as luck, to separate the hand you drew from the playing of that hand.

He describes five levels of the game for investors, though it seems more generally applicable:

1. Apprentice — learning the game

2. Expert — mastering the game you were taught

3. Professional — making the game you were taught fit your own strengths and weaknesses

4. Master — changing the game you play as part of your own self-expression and operating at scale

5. Steward — becoming part of the playing field itself and mentoring the next generation

 

Read the full post at The Playing Field on Medium.