Crypto Market Update: Blow Up

Crypto Market Update

My weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources.

Crypto Indexes

The Bletchley Indexes “offer the most thoughtful and consistent approach to index construction” according to CoinMetrics. 

Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.

Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.

crypto index market update 05.14.18.png

Obserservations

  • Bletchley 10 and Total Market down over 16% against USD over the past week
  • Both Remain up over 20% over last 30 days
  • Even Indexes roughly down the same amount as weighted indexes over last week
  • Platform, Application, and Currency indexes all down against USD and BTC.
  • Currency has performed best recently and is up over 25% vs BTC over last 90 days

Global Crypto Charts

For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.

Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $410.58 billion

total market cap 05.14.2018

 

Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies

Market Share of Top 5 Cryptocurrencies - 05-14-18

Bitcoin’s market share has declined to ~36%, close to all-time lows. This continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.

Marketshare of top 20 cryptocurrencies

The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 85% of the total crypto market share.

TradingView Technical Indicators

Based on data and info from TradingView (Click  for 30% off a pro subscription)

tradingview technical indicator score crypto 05.14.2018

Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3). 

  • BTC has turned much more negative in the short-term, while the 30-day technical analysis remains very positive
  • ETH remains postive vs USD, albeit less strongly than last week.

CRYPTO PERFORMANCE

bitcoin eth performance 05.14.18

  • BTC down over 7.5% vs USD over last week
  • BTC up 418% in last year – and “only” 35% in last 6 months.

Google Trends

Google Trends Bitcoin + Crypto 05-14-2018.png

Google Trends have mostly flattened out after falling significantly in February.

I’m tempted to stop tracking this, as  I believe there will be fewer searches as the public gains knowledge. However, significant price action could still lead to search volume surges.

WooBull Charts

Bitcoin NVT Ratio - 05.14.2018

NVT RatioThis long-term cycle tracking ratio has mostly continued a downward trend, although a slight uptick in the past few days. Regardless, the ratio is quite high and suggests a further downturn is due.

 

NVT Signal -This short-term signal has moved down significantly over the past week from 142 to 126. It appears to be breaking a support trend, suggesting bearish price movement in the short term.

In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.

Willy Woo recently gave is own update using the two charts above in a Twitter post. Great insight as to how he reads these charts. His take:

Putting it all together, BTC is still unwinding from mania, I think we are on the plateau of another dead cat, I put the next downward move, more gentle this time in the window of 7-14 days from now. /7

But price-wise I don’t think we are that far from the bottom. So not far to go on the short side, lots of long to go when it fully unwinds and sets up in the second half of this year. /8

CoinMetrics Charts

CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals. 

Kalvichkin's NVT - BTC ETH 05.14.2018

Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, Kalvichikin’s has begun to trend downward both both BTC and ETH.

Articles of Note

On Radical Markets

Here’s a post from Vitalik Buterin inspired Eric Posner and Glen Weyl’s new book, Radical Markets,

First, although I spend most of my time in the blockchain/crypto space heading up the Ethereum project and in some cases providing various kinds of support to projects in the space, I do also have broader interests, of which the use of economics and mechanism design to make more open, free, egalitarian and efficient systems for human cooperation, including improving or replacing present-day corporations and governments, is a major one.

Consider a system where property owners themselves specify what the value of their property is, and pay a tax rate of, say, 2% of that value per year. But here is the twist: whatever value they specify for their property, they have to be willing to sell it to anyone at that price.

Sitting with the cyber-sleuths who track cryptocurrency criminals

Crypto isn’t as secure as many believe, as shown in this inside look at fighting criminals using crypto.

Once multiple accounts have been linked to the same owner, you can try to figure out who that owner is. Linking Bitcoin accounts to real-world identities is possible because information tends to leak out. Regulated cryptocurrency exchanges—generally those in the US or Europe—must follow know-your-customer and anti-money-laundering rules, which require people to hand over identification before using their services. Some people are even so careless as to post their supposedly private Bitcoin addresses in online forums. “What people forget is that the blockchain is just one half of the equation,” says Knottenbelt.

In blockchain we trust – MIT Technology Review

Regardless of the price, blockchain will have major implications, as predicted in this piece on how this is a shirt akin to the advent of double ledger bookkeeping.

A new form of bookkeeping might seem like a dull accomplishment. Yet for thousands of years, going back to Hammurabi’s Babylon, ledgers have been the bedrock of civilization. That’s because the exchanges of value on which society is founded require us to trust each other’s claims about what we own, what we’re owed, and what we owe. To achieve that trust, we need a common system for keeping track of our transactions, a system that gives definition and order to society itself. How else would we know that Jeff Bezos is the world’s richest human being, that the GDP of Argentina is $620 billion, that 71 percent of the world’s population lives on less than $10 a day, or that Apple’s shares are trading at a particular multiple of the company’s earnings per share?

 ‘Ebay for CryptoKitties’ Raises $2 Million from All-Star VCs
Digital goods are just getting started and marketplaces seem like a natural way to exchange them.

 users need a place to more easily buy and sell those items.

It turns out OpenSea wasn’t alone: the decentralized online marketplace for physical itemsOpenBazaar has plans to open up its platform for digital items such as CryptoKitties as well, plus OPSkins recently created Wax, a platform for spinning up decentralized exchange services for these items.

Word on the street: A big week for institutional interest in crypto

includes:

JP Morgan’s boss of blockchain project says more to come

NYSE owner planning bitcoin swaps and crypto exchange

Former Goldman Sachs president backs blockchain

The 10 largest ICO fund raises: successes, controversies and lessons learned
The top ten ICOs have been very successful in gaining early positive attention around their projects; however, many on this list have had lackluster performances in the time since their ICOs.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin and the crypto markets more widely look susceptible to a short term price drop. Long term, there are are still many positive signs that it will “blow up.”

For me, I grew up listening to hip hop, I grew up in Oakland. It’s a little bit more like, “let’s try to make something that doesn’t suck, let’s try to do great stuff, let’s try to make big things”. But it’s a little bit less of, “let’s create an in-crowd and define all the things that that in-crowd hates so that we all feel closer to each other”.

Crypto Outlook: Quantity Counts

Crypto Market Update

My weekly update on the crypto market intends to look at the market from a macro perspective. With a majority of the crypto market cap concentrated on Bitcoin and a handful of other tokens, my focus is on the major coins. I check a standard set of information sources each week and include links to articles of interest.

Crypto Indexes

The Bletchley Indexes “offer the most thoughtful and consistent approach to index construction” according to CoinMetrics. 

Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.

Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.

bletchley crypto indexes 05-07-2018

Obserservations

  • The Bletchley 10 is up over 75% vs USD over last month. As has been the case historically, the even index performed even better, up nearly 100% vs the dollar.
  • The total indexes have seen similar results over the last month, both versus the dollar, as well as mirroring the improved performance of the even-index.
  • Currency Index has improved over the last week after lagging behind application and platform indexes over last month.
  • All three sectors have outperformed BTC over last 30 days, though only currency shows positive gains over last week.

Global Crypto Charts

For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.

Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies

crypto total market cap 05.07.18

Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s market share has declined to ~38%, close to all-time lows. This continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.

Marketshare of top 20 cryptocurrencies

The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 86% of the total crypto market share.

TradingView Technical Indicators

Based on data and info from TradingView (Click  for 30% off a pro subscription)

crypto tradingview technical signals 05.07.18

Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3). 

  • ETH has surged compared to BTC and USD over the last month. Technical indicators suggest the tide may be swinging to favor BTC in the short term.
  • USDT has outperformed USD by over 6% in the last year.

CRYPTO PERFORMANCE

crypto performance 05.07.18

  • BTC has been mostly flat the past week, while ETH has surged.
  • ETH has doubled over the last month (versus USD)

Google Trends

bitcoin google trends

Google Trends have mostly flattened out after falling significantly in February.

I’m hesitant to keep tracking this, as my assumption is that there will be less searches as the public gains knowledge and no longer needs to search for the term. However, significant price action could still lead to search volume surges.

WooBull Charts

Bitcoin NVT Ratio - 05.07.2018

NVT RatioThis long-term cycle tracking ratio has continued it’s downward trend yet remains well above the long term “normal range,” suggesting a downward turn could be imminent.

 

Bitcoin NVT Signal Chart 05.07.2018

NVT Signal – This short-term signal continued its upward trend again, reaching a recent high of 142. In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.

Overall, there is potential for the upward trend to continue in short-term, though NVT Ratio suggests a downturn is looming.

CoinMetrics Charts

CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals. 

Kalvichkin's NVT - BTC ETH 05.07.2018

Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, this suggests an upward trend is likely to continue for both BTC and ETH in the short term.

Articles of Note

Is Ether a security?

I tend to overlook most regulatory concerns, assuming they’ll sort themselves out and should only be speed bumps in the long run. If the SEC determines ETH is a security, it could have repercussions for some whales. The fact that VCs have lobbied the SEC for a ‘safe harbor’ both shows how important this is, and makes me think there won’t be any major negative impact with some sort of compromise reached.

Crypto Moats

The open nature of crypto currencies allows for code to be copied or forked easily, making it much harder to establish moats (to use a Warren Buffet phrase) to protect from competitors.

Robert Miller, Director of Business Development @medical_chain, wrote on the topic and suggested some potential moats, including:

  • Superior brand
  • Superior developers
  • Partially/fully closed source code
    “Cryptocurrencies might withhold some or all of their code in the future to keep competitors from taking their code. Spencer Noon touches on this in his post The Persistent Forker but developers could put their code in a “black box” that was able to prove the code did not change over time.”
  •  Life span
    “Nassim Taleb introduces the idea of the Lindy Effect in his book Antifragile. The Lindy Effect states the future life expectancy of non-perishable assets is proportional to their current age. In other words, the longer something has been around the longer we can expect it to stay around.”
  • Network effects
  • Good governance
Fred Wilson counters Warren Buffet on Crypto Investing

Speaking of Warren Buffet, he recently made some remarks about Bitcoin and crypto, saying:

When you buy cryptocurrency, Buffett continues, “You aren’t investing when you do that. You’re speculating. There’s nothing wrong with it. If you wanna gamble somebody else will come along and pay more money tomorrow, that’s one kind of game. That is not investing.”

On AVC, Venture capitalist Fred Wilson countered by stating that he’s not looking at crypto correctly, assuming they are collectibles, rather than fuel:

But what these crypto tokens are is entirely something else. They are the fuel that powers a new form of technology infrastructure that is being built on top of the foundational internet protocols. Ethereum and EOS are smart contract platforms that allow developers to create decentralized applications (Dapps in the vernacular of crypto). Bitcoin and Zcash are stores of value that allow users to participate in this decentralized application space without the need for fiat currencies.

It’s a good counter from someone who invests more like Buffet than many might assume, given they both look to buy and hold for a long investment period.

The end of ICOs

While enormous amounts are still being raised in ICOs, with over $8 billion raised in 2018 already, it’s increasingly coming in private sales. In the Token Economy newsletter, Stefano Bernardi writes about the downside:

And I’m bored.
I’m bored because I now see startups having to spend 6 figure sums on lawyers instead of building their products.
I’m bored because I see people making a killing from being accredited investors and thus being able to access opportunities that others can’t.
And I’m bored because all of this regulatory attention and focus is necessary, given that the scammers army has found its new honeypot.
We really can’t have nice things.

And makes his prediction for the future of ICOs:

Very hard to say, but our guess is that “normal” VC rounds will become more of a norm, there will be fewer public ICOs from legit projects, and the tokens will trade on exchanges directly with the company, or its treasury unit, or some specifically chosen early investors acting as market makers.

 Why Decentralization Matters

Many of the early believers in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies were attracted by the hope for decentralized systems. Spencer Bogart writes that the path to decentralization may be through centralization first. He cites problems with going do a decentralized model too early, as well as problems with becoming too centralized:

Either these platforms will offer strong assurances (“permissionless-ness”), in which case they will attract “sovereign-grade” attackers (and “platform-grade” censorship resistance will be insufficient) OR they will embrace censorship and permission-ing, in which case they will end up as less efficient varieties of today’s centralized platforms. Regardless, neither path appears sustainable.

The path forward: Highly decentralized base layer with increased centralization (and efficiency) on higher layers

He acknowledges a trend toward further centralization and it optimistic:

Instead, I’m most optimistic that highly decentralized networks will provide the robust foundation on top of which we can realize the efficiencies of centralization in higher layers — should it be desired. It’s a path that will likely take longer and be more difficult to build, but it might be the only viable route medium- to long-term.

Final Thoughts

A story from The Process Matters by Nick Maggiulli:

On the first day of ceramics class the teacher announced that the students would be split into two groups. One group would be graded on the quantity of the work they produced while the other group would be graded on the quality of the work they produced. The “quantity” group had to create as many clay pots as possible over the next few months while the “quality” group had to produce a single clay pot as best they could.

Months later as the students turned in their pots to be graded, the teacher came to a surprising realization — all of the highest quality pots were produced by students in the “quantity” group.

Regardless of regulatory action, crypto is here and it’s not going away. There’s a number of projects live, more in development, and even more that are just being conceived. Some projects will work, many won’t. The number of successes will increase as more projects are created. It’s early.

 

 

If the ICO craze is over, what’s next?

Is the ICO craze over? From a recent Token Economy newsletter:

However we are coming across more and more projects avoiding public sales all together, opting instead for phased out private-only rounds structured as traditional equity rounds or SAFTs/private pre-sales, or a combination of both in sequence. Data provided by our friends from Tokendata show that, in January, $180 million worth of capital was raised by projects that had initially planned a public sale, but eventually cancelled it and raised privately. These include Olympus Labs, Nucleus Vision, Coinfi, Shipchain and a bunch of others (not going to lie, we had not heard of most of them). Of the balance, anecdotally 50–75% was possibly raised via private pre-sales.

They speculate it’s due to regulatory fear, influx of institutional money, huge capital due to increase in value of $ETH, and a handful of other factors, including “more sanity” among founders (ha!).

What this means is unknown, though have some well-reasoned predictions including alternative distribution models where real usage is the goal, increased transparency from quality projects, and a boom in the fully compliant tokens.

Fully-compliant is one thing; proving worthy of the funds raised will be a big task this year. Many projects will not survive and that trend will begin to hurt wavering projects, where token holders decide to sell before value goes to zero.

Crush Crypto Core Listed on IDEX – Crush Crypto

Originally, this was introduced on the Iconomi platform, which had a KYC process in place restricting those from countries with potential regulations, like the United States.

The solution? Wait a few months and list on an unregulated exchange, providing conveniently scheduled liquidity periods.

Crush Crypto Core (CCC) is now listed on IDEX. Anyone can now purchase CCC from the exchange.

For those of you who live in countries that are excluded from ICONOMI (US or Canada), or if your deposit limit in ICONOMI is maxed out, you can purchase CCC directly from IDEX.

In order to jump start the liquidity of CCC, we will put up some orders on IDEX every day at 2pm PST (5pm EST or 10pm GMT) so there is guaranteed liquidity at that time. We will put up buy/sell orders for CCC at the market value as quoted on ICONOMI, but will pull the order after 15 minutes since the value of CCC fluctuates continuously.

via Crush Crypto Core Listed on IDEX at Crush Crypto

Ray Dillinger on the Sad State of Blockchain

From Ray Dillinger, who reviewed the blockchain code for the orginal bitcoin source code and began experimenting with virtual currency back in 1995, comes a regretfully toned message on the current state of affairs:

Sadly, many of the people who launched these alternates don’t know what they’re doing. Even more sadly, most of them do know what they’re doing, and at least three quarters know that what they’re doing is ripping people off. They strive to do it as well as they possibly can, usually by means that I can’t really distinguish from blatant stock price manipulation and insider trading.

His lament comes after praise of bitcoin and Satoshi:

Every Trusted role is, by definition, a weakness in security. You can see why security professionals are aghast when people talk about “Trusted Computing Modules” becoming a standard part of computers.

Satoshi had developed, as far as I’m aware, the first digital cash system with no Trusted role at all and thus, no way to abuse a Trusted position.

You know the old saw about being able to get a lot done if you don’t care who gets the credit? Satoshi doesn’t want the credit. Two years later he walked away and left the pseudonym behind. And hard as this may be to believe, it looks like he doesn’t even want to be paid for it. As far as we can tell he mined approximately a million Bitcoins and has never sold a single one of them.

The original selflessness of bitcoin feels a long way from the ICO-craze.

I hate to even imagine how many billions of dollars of scams and failures and thefts have been perpetrated by abusing people’s faith in and enthusiasm for that technology by now. And I have no idea how we could possibly have prevented it.

Yet Another Shady ICO

The latest crypto-related scam is Alex Tapscott’s crypto VC firm. Laura Shin reported:

The company was attempting a $100 million CAD ($78 million USD) raise after having already received $20 million CAD in a private offering.

However, the firm announced it was aborting their plan.

The move comes days after Forbes disclosed that the company had falsely named four crypto stars as advisors in an investor deck labeled version 5. When confronted by two of them, Tapscott had told one, Kathryn Haun, a board member of Coinbase, that she had only been included in a printed version, when she had obtained an electronic copy (version 5).

The other, Vinny Lingham, CEO of blockchain identity startup Civic and a shark on South Africa’s Shark Tank, told Alex via email he was hearing he had been named an advisor and Tapscott wrote back, “You are (obviously) not an advisor and have not been listed as one! So bizarre.” Lingham responded he was looking at the deck with his face and bio on it and said, “please don’t lie to me.”

Tapscott still seemed to want overlook the lies.

That evening, Tapscott, when asked by Forbes about the four falsely named advisors, said, “I currently have an order book for this financing of $250 million. To me that’s really the big story.”

Another example ICOs attracting the wrong people?

How Token Hodlers Create Added Volatility

A post from late September by Primoz Kordez, an advisor at ICONOMI, on token “hodlers” create volatility:

…there will always be a certain share of token holders who act as investors, either active or passive. Even if these investors are passive in their behavior, do they really have no effect on a network at all? Interestingly, in the token economy an investor is someone who impacts the floating number of tokens that can be utilized. By having more “hodlers” or passive investors in the token ownership structure, they effectively take tokens out of circulation for use. Assuming velocity of tokens and total spending stay constant, the floating value per token must increase if more tokens are hoarded by investors.

Essentially, the number of active tokens is reduced thus making them more susceptible to large swings caused by a large buy or sell from a passive investor. If a number of tokens are suddenly dumped onto the market:

It can lead to a downward spiral in which investors’ decisions cause underutilization of tokens exchanged, leading to lower network value and causing additional investors to flee.

This problem is most costly when token utility users (as opposed to passive holder) need more tokens to meet increased utility demands. They must trade for the tokens from another coin at a poor rate and don’t benefit from a higher token value since they require tokens for real usage.

The best scenario for stable and predictive token dynamics is to have more actual users in the ownership structure, but this isn’t something that can really be controlled.

Good projects need to be owned by real users – not passive investors. Users get the most value out of the network and should be rewarded for usage. Perhaps it’s possible to reward heavy users with increased token values or additional tokens. Using Vitalik’s idea of a predetermined sink, some percent of unused tokens could be burned, thus slightly reducing the number of tokens held by non-users? (A holding tax of sorts).

Star Ratings and Blockchain Stock

Matt Levine shared some thoughts on the upcoming ICO from Overstock.com’s subsidiary, T0 (t-zero)

There are two fundamentally different ways to think about “the blockchain” in finance. One way emphasizes the qualities that originally made bitcoin interesting: its trustless, decentralized nature, in which no one owns or controls the system as a whole. This is of course the philosophy behind bitcoin and Ethereum, but it is also the philosophy behind some of the more interesting and successful initial coin offerings. “The point of an ICO, done right,” I wrote recently, “is that you are not building a business; you’re building an unowned system for everyone to use.

The other way to think about “the blockchain” ignores those philosophical ideas and just treats blockchain as a technology improvement.

He goes on to portray what a mere technology improvement would look like for T0:

“All stock securities will eventually become tokens” [Overstock CEO Patrick Byrne’s quote] sounds ambitious, and in a way it is. If it’s true, then the opportunity for blockchainy stock exchanges like tZero’s to displace incumbent banks and exchanges is enormous. But in another way it is a retreat from the more interesting ambitions of blockchain proponents. It’s not a new form of business organization, a new way to build decentralized protocols to displace corporations as the engine of technological innovation. It’s just the regular old form of business organization, through public stock corporations, but on the blockchain.

Not exactly the future most crypto-enthusiasts are looking for. It needs to be more than that.

Geography of Token Sales

From Observations on the Geography of Token Sales at Smith + Crown:

  • In terms of both sales activity and raise amounts, Switzerland and Singapore are unsurprisingly leaders.
  • The number of sales occurring and the amounts raised in the United States isurprising, given a widely held view of US regulatory risk.
  • In addition, the list of countries filling in the secondary tiers of ICO activities contains a number of somewhat surprising entrants. Whether this represents a relatively small number of globally-dispersed outliers or the beginnings of a new trend of projects moving away from traditional financial centers–crypto or traditional–is yet unknown.

Along with the writeup, they created 3 nice-looking charts/infographics to analyze various ICO data by country. There’s less discrepancy overall than I would have expected. Now, if only we could see from which countries ICO money originated.

 

For stable token values, sinks are highly beneficial

Vitalik published a post on the valuation of medium of exchange tokens, which have dominated the ICO landscape. This type of token implies that it can be exchanges for goods and services on a platform built by the development team. It’s similar to a Kickstarter-style funding, except that tokens must have ongoing value. It’s not sufficient to deliver a product once.

…the cycle is not complete, and in fact it never will be; there needs to be an ongoing stream of buyers and sellers for the token to continue having its value.

He goes on to the many factors that go into determining the value of a token, concluding:

One immediate conclusion from this particular insight is that appcoins are very much a multi-equilibrium game….Another, and perhaps even more important, conclusion is that the market cap of an appcoin depends crucially on the holding time H. If someone creates a very efficient exchange, which allows users to purchase an appcoin in real time and then immediately use it in the application, then allowing sellers to immediately cash out, then the market cap would drop precipitously….hyper-efficient exchanges are around the corner

Due to this, he says values cannot be sustained solely on their usage as a medium of exchange; there are too many outside factors. He cites Etherdelta as an example of an alternative model, where fees are collected in the interface. Another option it to set a side a specific amount to buy back tokens and burn them, thus reducing deflation/costs of holding over time.

The important thing is that for the token to have a stable value, it is highly beneficial for the token supply to have sinks – places where tokens actually disappear and so the total token quantity decreases over time.

There’s been a lot of discussion lately about the value of tokens and the right way to do a token sale/ICO. The standards around tokens/ICOs need to be raised and hopefully this helps push more projects in the right directly. Of course, it won’t do much to help the dozens of poorly structured projects that have already raised millions.