Crypto Market Update for 07.16.2018

Crypto Market Update 07.16.2018

Our weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources in an effort to get a less biased opinion of the market. 

 

CRYPTO INDEX PERFORMANCE

The Bletchley Indexes “offer the most thoughtful and consistent approach to index construction” according to CoinMetrics. 

Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.

Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.

Observations

  • B10/USD down over 5% in last week and down over 65% over last 6 months
  • BTOTAL/USD Even index down nearly 10% in last week
  • Platform, App, and Currency index all negative vs USD in past 7/30/90 days

 

Global Crypto Charts

For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.

Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $262.05 billion  ( down from $272.05 billion 1 week ago)

Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s market share sits at 41%, up from a recent low of 34% in early May. Looking longer-term, Bitcoin continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.

Market share of top 20 cryptocurrencies

The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 88% of the total crypto market share.

TradingView Technical Indicators

Based on data and info from TradingView (Click  for 30% off a pro subscription)

Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3). 

  • Little change in trading signals for BTC and ETH

 

CRYPTO PERFORMANCE

  • BTC/USD down over 5% over last week
  • ETH/USD fared worse; down over 8%

 

Google Trends

 

Google Trends hasn’t continued slight downward trend over last 90 days.

WooBull Charts

NVT Ratio –  180 – This long-term cycle tracking ratio has move somewhat higher recently. The ratio is very high and suggests BTC is towards the end of long-term cycle.

NVT Signal -This short-term signal has fallen to 118, down from 123 three weeks ago.

In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.

Willy Woo also recently published a Tweet thread where he suggested BTC may go to $5500-5700 next.

CoinMetrics Charts

CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals. 

Kalvichkin’s NVT – Kalvichikin’s NVT has moved sideways recently.

Articles of Note

 

— CoinBase announced they are looking into adding new tokens. This transparent nature should alleviate allegations of insiders benefiting from the foresight of an impending addition to CoinBase’s exchange. 

“Going forward, you should expect that we will make similar announcements about exploring the addition of multiple assets.”

Coinbase is Exploring Cardano, Basic Attention Token, Stellar Lumens, Zcash, and 0x
Coinbase The Coinbase Blog

“Today we are announcing that we’re exploring the addition of the following assets to Coinbase:Cardano (ADA)Basic Attention Token (BAT)Stellar Lumens (XLM)Zcash (ZEC)0x (ZRX)1

– A discussion of the trading conditions and trends around BTC results in a general bearish sentiment. 

“Despite declining daily transactions, NVT has begun to decrease, suggesting more on-chain value is being transmitted”

Bitcoin Price Analysis – Bearish in the interim
Bravenewcoin

“Using a 30-day Kalichkin network value to transactions (NVT) ratio, BTC remains in the upper-third of its historical NVT value. NVT has not been this high since January 2015 but has begun to turn downward recently, which suggests increasing on-chain network usage based on the dollar amount being transacted. Additionally, inflection points in the NVT ratio can correlate with extreme highs or lows in price.2

— Major League Baseball is launching a cryptokitties-like non-fungible token. Rather than digital baseball cards, these will be tied to specific in-game moments. 

“Lucid Sight, a blockchain gaming company, is launching MLB Crypto Baseball, through a licensing deal with MLB”

MLB launching MLB Crypto Baseball game
Daniel RobertsSenior Writer finance.yahoo.com

“In MLB Crypto Baseball, users will pay in ether to buy digital avatars tied to specific moments in recent games. They can then sell the items, or in some cases, earn rewards and stickers. The game is a decentralized app, or “dApp.”3

— Kyle Samani of MultiCoin Capital discusses the Web 3 stack, including current status of various levels and what still needs to be built for blockchain/Dapps to gain serious traction. 

“The dapp revolution will happen shortly after the Web3 stack achieves some level of usability, stability, and feature-completeness”

The Web3 Stack – Multicoin Capital
by Kyle Samani Multicoin Capital

“Interestingly, almost no one in crypto talks about decentralizing application hosting. This is particularly curious because this layer is centralized in basically every dapp today. It’s centralized either because the web server hosting the app is centralized, or because there’s a single download link to download the app and install it on the client device, pushing the ecosystem back towards the walled-garden model, which is by definition centralized. In an ideal world, the application host would be both decentralized and delivered just in time, a la modern web applications.4

— Augur, which allows anyone to bet on anything without a middleman, launched last week. It’s a project we’re watching closely. 

“What distinguishes Augur from a traditional betting market is that no single party sits in the middle, meaning that users are likely to pay lower prices.”

Augur Is Live: Decentralized Prediction Market Launches After 2-Year Beta
CoinDesk David Floyd

“Now, the Forecast Foundation, the not-for-profit behind Augur’s development, has announced the launch of the long-awaited platform, which was accompanied by the release of the final version of the Augur application as open-source software.
The years-long delay in reaching this point may have been frustrating for token holders, but it has allowed the Augur team to aggressively vet their code through internal audits and a generous bug bounty program. Notably, Augur offered $200,000 for bugs that qualified as “critical” (though the team hasn’t announced any rewards larger than $5,000).5

 

  1. https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-is-exploring-cardano-basic-attention-token-stellar-zcash-and-0x-9e44f0eb823f
  2. https://bravenewcoin.com/news/bitcoin-price-analysis-bearish-in-the-interim/
  3. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-major-league-baseball-going-crypto-134033104.html
  4. https://multicoin.capital/2018/07/10/the-web3-stack/
  5. https://www.coindesk.com/augur-is-live-decentralized-prediction-market-launches-after-2-year-beta/

Crypto Market Outlook 05.29.2018

the root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts.

Satoshi Nakamoto on February 11, 2009

Bitcoin open source implementation of P2P currency

Crypto Market Update

Our weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources in order to cut through attention grabbing headlines and get a less biased opinion of the market. 

Crypto Indexes

The Bletchley Indexes “offer the most thoughtful and consistent approach to index construction” according to CoinMetrics. 

Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.

Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.

Observations

  • Bletchley 10 and Total Market down significantly vs USD over past week (-20%)
  • Very negative performance for B10 and BTotal over last 3 months
  • Even Indexes continued to underperform weighted indexes
  • Platform, Application, and Currency indexes all down against USD and BTC over last week
  • Only the application index remains positive over last 3 months vs BTY, yet still significantly underperformed USD

 

Global Crypto Charts

For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.

Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $326.65 billion ( vs $379.72 billion one week ago)

Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s market share has climbed to 38%, a recent. Looking longer-term, Bitcoin continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.

Market share of top 20 cryptocurrencies

The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 86% of the total crypto market share.

TradingView Technical Indicators

Based on data and info from TradingView (Click  for 30% off a pro subscription)

Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3). 

  • BTC and ETH have turned much more negative vs USD since last week
  • ETH signals look somewhat better than BTC

CRYPTO PERFORMANCE

  • BTC down over 11% vs USD over last week and nearly 30% over last 3 months
  • ETH and BTC have performed similarly vs USD over last year

 

Google Trends

 

Google Trends have have shown slowly declining searches out after falling significantly in February.

I’m tempted to stop tracking this, as I believe there will be fewer searches as the public gains knowledge. However, significant price action could still lead to search volume surges.

WooBull Charts

NVT Ratio This long-term cycle tracking ratio has spiked significantly in the past week, continuing the uptick seen in the last few days before last week’s update. The ratio is very high and suggests a correction could be due and that this is the end of long-term cycle.

NVT Signal -This short-term signal has moved down slightly over the past week from 122 to 115. It has broken a support trend, suggesting bearish price movement in the short term.

In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.

Willy Woo also recently published a Tweet thread where he suggested BTC may go to $5500-5700 next.

CoinMetrics Charts

CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals. 

Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, Kalvichikin’s NVT has dropped recently, indicating a bearish short term market.

Articles of Note

“Yesterday we were provided with an incredible reminder of why Bitcoin’s slow and steady + simple approach when it comes to development is the right call in the long-run.”

Marty’s Ƀent – May 23rd, 2018 – Issue #238
Master List Archive Feed

“The more complex projects try to get in an attempt to create “fairness” the bigger their attack surface gets. Verge thought five mining algorithms was a clever way to make their network fairer, but have discovered that they just made the network more insecure. Apparently, Verge wasn’t the only chain to experience an attack this week”
1

“It’s interesting to think about what the landscape will look like 3–5 years from now, and which DEXs will manage to carve out significant market”

Token Economy #50: Paradox?
Yannick Roux Token Economy – Medium

“And Coinbase isn’t the only centralized exchange entering the DEX arena, Binance is also building its own version. It’s interesting to think about what the landscape will look like 3–5 years from now, and which DEXs will manage to carve out significant market share independently and how, if at all. ”
2

“Content provided by creators gets instantly tokenized, published to the Fan Bits marketplace, and pays out Ethereum to the creator after each sale”

Announcing Fan Bits: A DIY crypto-collectible creation platform
Medium

“While there’s clear demand for this kind of asset, creating crypto-collectibles is a highly technical pursuit that requires extensive development work. We’re ecstatic to announce that that’s about to change.”
3

“It manages more than 20 million accounts, almost as many as Fidelity Investments, twice as many as Charles Schwab and about as many accounts as Vanguard has investors.”

Move deliberately, fix things: How Coinbase is building a cryptocurrency empire
Brian Fung Washington Post

“But in many ways, Coinbase styles itself the anti-start-up. Its attitude, both hungry and calculating, may be the key to its survival as it seeks to sell the world — from mom-and-pop investors to massive hedge funds — on the idea that it has become to cryptocurrency what Google is to Web searches.”
4

“Our final estimate from looking at the UTXO age distribution is that between 3–3.8M BTC are lost.”

Bitcoin Data Science (Pt. 2): The Geology of Lost Coins
Dhruv Bansal Unchained Capital Blog – Medium

“We believe bitcoin loss occurred over two distinct “cryptogeologic” eras:Systemic loss: a large cohort of BTC which was mined together and lost together in the earliest days of Bitcoin by Satoshi and the other first miners. (Bitcoin’s carboniferous period.)Incremental loss: BTC lost by individual users gradually over different periods of time.”
5

 

Our Take

Short-term: The crypto market continues to look bearish in the short-term. We’re still bullish long-term and believe there are interesting projects right now that will establish themselves for the long term.

  1. https://mailchi.mp/4c3c61136fe8/martys-bent-may-23rd-2017-issue-238
  2. https://tokeneconomy.co/token-economy-50-paradox-d8f2270c0dce
  3. https://medium.com/@fanbits/announcing-fan-bits-a-diy-crypto-collectible-creation-platform-7028616e13e1
  4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/move-deliberately-fix-things-how-coinbase-is-building-a-cryptocurrency-empire/2018/05/17/623d950c-587c-11e8-858f-12becb4d6067_story.html
  5. https://blog.unchained-capital.com/bitcoin-data-science-pt-2-the-geology-of-lost-coins-79e5a0dc6d1?source=rss—-c6f7bef2c97e—4

Coinbase earned over $1 billion in revenue in 2017

Coinbase, the bitcoin trading broker that has exploded in popularity as cryptocurrencies surge and nose dive, has encountered an unusual problem for a Silicon Valley startup: Too many investors are trying to get in. The six-year-old company crossed $1 billion in revenue last year, Recode has learned from industry sources, a tremendous rise fueled by layman interest in both bitcoin and competing virtual currencies that users can buy and sell through the app.

via Bitcoin broker Coinbase booked $1 billion in revenue last year at Recode

More on Robinhood’s plan to offer free crypto-trading

By essentially using crypto trading as a loss leader instead of its primary business like Coinbase and other apps, Robinhood could substantially expand beyond the 3 million users it already has. Simplifying trading and tracking could bolster Bitcoin and Ethereum. And by combining it with traditional equities trading in a single app, Robinhood could further legitimize the cryptocurrency craze.

More on Robinhood’s plan to offer free crypto-trading and the pressure it put’s on Coinbase, while also helping to legitmize crypto to a degree.

via Robinhood adds zero-fee cryptocurrency trading and tracking at TechCrunch

Coinbase’s masterplan to compete with traditional brokerages

What’s lost amid all of this excitement, however, is that Coinbase is quietly and rapidly executing a classic “Trojan Horse” strategy that could ultimately end up with it putting traditional brokerages out of business.

via The Coinbase Master Plan for World Domination: How Traditional Brokerages Are Being Set Up for Disruption at Never Stop Marketing…