Market Outlook April 02, 2018

Technical Indicators

All of the indexes we follow have turned to bearish signals on daily timeframes. HACK remains the only index with a ‘buy’ rating on weekly timeframes.

With the exception of BOND, all indexes we follow still have buy ratings on monthly timeframes.

 

-2 = strong sell
-1 = sell
0 = neutral
1 = buy
2 = strong buy

Score gives 3x weight to 30-day indicators and 2x weight to 7-day indicators.

What others are saying

1 . Old Prof cautions about short-term trading, though believes long-term fundamentals remain positive.

Short-term trading conditions worsened this week. In mildly bearish conditions our trading approaches can still be profitable, but that might not be true for everyone. We continue to monitor the technical health measures on a daily basis. If this indicator goes to fullish bearish, we liquidate trading positions. This is not a forecast that the market will decline. It indicates increased difficulty in trading profitably.

The long-term fundamentals and outlook are little changed. The FOMC decision flattened the yield curve a bit, and that is one component of the C-Score. Based upon historical data for this indicator, I have increased the 9-month recession probability to the 18% range. I am monitoring, but not yet especially worried. Please see James Picerno below.

He also warns that Canadian marijuana stocks may be overvalued:

Pot stocks, according to a cover story in Barron’s. Bill Alpert analyzes the Canadian stocks, comparing valuations to other markets like gold and alcohol. He writes:

As they often do, investors have celebrated this emerging business early by embracing Canadian companies that claim a cannabis connection. Traveling in Canada, cabbies, bankers, and even border guards will tell you their favorites in a bubble that has floated Canadian cannabis stocks to a collective stock-market value above $30 billion. That’s already about half the market capitalization of Canada’s gold mining industry.

 

 

2. At StockTrader, Mark Hanna writes about the potential huge surge in corporate earnings:

2018 will be the year the massive corporate tax cuts boost earnings.

According to FactSet, earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are expected to grow 17.3% in the first quarter. Not only would that represent the fastest pace of profit growth since the first quarter of 2011, but expectations have been swiftly ratcheted up over the past few months. At the end of December, analysts were expecting a growth rate of 11.4%. Much of that increase was due to the recently passed tax-reform bill.

Stocks

  • Solar stocks like SEDG and RUN are holding up well in a volatile market
  • OSTK is down over 40% over the 30 days
  • BSBR (banco santander) has been added to our watchlist after reaching new all time highs with an attractive P/E ratio of ~16. More research to be conducted.

Outlook

Remaining mostly invested and looking into income producing assets and real estate projects to hedge should the market continue showing signs of weakness.

 

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