Crypto Market Update 06.18.2018
Our weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources in an effort to get a less biased opinion of the market.
I love the term “frontier” because it beautifully captures the opportunities and perils involved. It sounds like a wide-open opportunity, adventurous, perhaps even romantic. But it’s also a place where you have a non-trivial chance of ending flat on your face with a bunch of arrows in your back.
Matt Turck – Investing in Frontier Tech
Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.
Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.
- Down nearly 20% vs USD for both B10 and BTotal over last 3 months
- No indexes are positive vs USD over last 7/30/09 days
Global Crypto Charts
For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.
Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $288.56 billion ( down from $299.54 billion one week ago)
Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin’s market share has remained at 39%, up from a recent low of 34% in early May. Looking longer-term, Bitcoin continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.
Market share of top 20 cryptocurrencies
The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 88% of the total crypto market share, a relatively significant rise from 85% a week ago suggesting smaller tokens and currencies have been hurt more than the larger currencies.
TradingView Technical Indicators
Based on data and info from TradingView (Click for 30% off a pro subscription)
Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3).
- Not much change from a week ago. Both BTC and ETH remain with negative total technical indicator scores
- ETH showing strength over BTC
- BTC down nearly 10% vs USD over last week and 20% over last month
- ETH down over 10% in last week vs USD and 25% over last month
Google Trends saw a slight increase this past week, though still an overall downtrend since February 2018.
NVT Ratio – 182 – This long-term cycle tracking ratio has continued the upward trend seen the last few weeks. The ratio is very high and suggests BTC is towards the end of long-term cycle.
NVT Signal -This short-term signal has fallen to 115, down from 130 last week.
In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.
Willy Woo also recently published a Tweet thread where he suggested BTC may go to $5500-5700 next.
CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals.
Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, Kalvichikin’s NVT has dropped recently suggesting a short term downward trend.
Articles of Note
“don’t want Bitcoin and Ether to have the advantage of being the only tokens that are not deemed to be securities’
Ether Is Not A Security
Fred Wilson AVC
“this is not about Ether, but about the fact that a token can be used to raise capital (the “fundraising that accompanied the creation of Ether”) and at some point no longer resemble a security in the eyes of the SEC.1
“Smart contracts will significantly reduce transaction costs and thus let people create valuable, new private orderings.”
Towards An International Court of Smart Contract Arbitration
Alex Tabarrok Marginal REVOLUTION
“Contract law, for example, is filled with concepts like mistake, misrepresentation, duress, negligence and intention that are not easily formalized in code. Contract law is a human enterprise. And the humans who write contracts want law with terms like negligence precisely because these terms fill in for gaps which cannot be filled in and formalized in contracts let alone in code2
“It’s an odd choice. For background, Ethereum Classic was created during a hard fork of the Ethereum blockchain back in 2016.”
Coinbase Announces Listing Of Ethereum Classic
noahsayres Hacked: Hacking Finance
“Coinbase has finally added a fifth cryptocurrency to what was formally the “elite four” of the platform, Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash3
“An oracle should be expected to share in the consequences – skin in the game is necessary”
Blockchain Oracles Will Make Smart Contracts Fly – Hacker Noon
Doug von Kohorn Hacker Noon
“an oracle provides a connection between real world events and a blockchain. In my opinion, all of the really interesting complex smart contracts require outside information — financial derivatives, gambling, stablecoins, identity4
“NFTs seem like a good platform for tokenizing all types of assets, digital or real”
“As a passionate Magic the Gathering player in my early high school years, I can totally relate to the promise NFTs bear for digitizing collectible cards and see a natural initial application for them when it comes to gaming. This is also the area in which most of the current NFT projects are experimenting.However, I believe applications of NFTs can go far beyond that. For one, NFTs seem like a good platform for tokenizing all types of assets, digital or real, and to enable all the interesting crypto features for dealing with them, such as trustless transfers, trading or fractional ownership. This5
“all market-based exchange, price is determined by a meeting of the minds of a buyer and seller, not by an algorithm,”
“Stablecoins” are trending, but they may ignore basic economics
Mike Orcutt MIT Technology Review
“developers of stablecoins fail to account for basic economic principles by assuming that they will always be able to “incentivize users of their systems to purchase their coins at an arbitrary price.”6
“Prediction markets are speculative markets with the primary purpose of aggregating information rather than hedging risks.”
The Power of Prediction Markets – Gnosis
Nadja Beneš Gnosis
“Prediction markets are speculative markets with the primary purpose of aggregating information rather than hedging risks.7
” Whereas cloning is frowned upon in established tech, it is openly embraced in the blockchain ecosystem”
“There is the Bitcoin maximalist tribe, the Ethereum disciples, the security token believers and the enterprise blockchain evangelists. Each believes in their own purity of purpose of intentions, while many show skepticism at the purity and purpose of others who don’t think the same way. This is because they all “believe”: it is an ecosystem where the missionaries far outweigh the mercenaries8