Crypto Market Update 08.10.2018
Our weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources in an effort to get a less biased opinion of the market.
CRYPTO INDEX PERFORMANCE
Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.
Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.
- B10 down over 40% in 3 months vs USD, while down 23% vs BTC
- B10 even index is roughly even over last ~400 days
- BTotal down nearly 50% over last 30 days vs USD
- Platform, application, and currency are all down over 50% vs USD last 3 months
Global Crypto Charts
For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.
Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $223.35 billion
Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin’s market share has risen to 50%, a dominance which hasn’t been seen since December.
Market share of top 20 cryptocurrencies
The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 90% of the total crypto market share.
TradingView Technical Indicators
Based on data and info from TradingView (Click for 30% off a pro subscription)
Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3).
- BTC and ETH negative vs USD
- ETH is much more negative than USD
- BTC/USD down nearly 15% over last wee, while up slightly over last 30 days
- ETHBTC down nearly 20% vs USD last month
Google Trends has continued slight downward trend over last 90 days.
NVT Ratio – 185 – This long-term cycle tracking ratio has move somewhat higher recently. The ratio is very high and suggests BTC is towards the end of long-term cycle.
NVT Signal -140
In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.
Willy Woo also recently published a Tweet thread where he suggested BTC may go to $5500-5700 next.
Articles of Note
“dApps and blockchain games can design their non-fungible tokens to create more open ecosystems & include creators”
Designing Non-Fungible Tokens as Open Ecosystems
Brian Flynn Token Economy – Medium
“Developers are currently creating closed ecosystems to foster a community of players inside of their platform. We need to start creating open ecosystems by utilizing blockchain mechanics so third-party developers and creators can benefit from contributing to the ecosystem and earn real, sustainable revenue for doing so. A non-fungible token community needs not just players, but a community of creators.1
“cryptocurrency returns can be predicted by factors which are specific to cryptocurrency markets”
Cryptocurrency risk and return
Tyler Cowen Marginal REVOLUTION
“Specifically, we determine that there is a strong time-series momentum effect and that proxies for investor attention strongly forecast cryptocurrency returns. Finally, we create an index of exposures to cryptocurrencies of 354 industries in the US and 137 industries in China.2