Crypto Market Update 07.09.2018
Our weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources in an effort to get a less biased opinion of the market.
“The whole idea is anyone, anywhere should be able to trade value with anyone, anywhere else—trust them immediately—and do it directly.”
Getting Back to Blockchain Basics
Jeremy Epstein Never Stop Marketing
Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.
Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.
- B10 vs USD up over 7% over last 90 days, down 65% since January
- EVEN Indexes continue to show greater volatility – and greater returns
- Plaform index up over 1% over last 90 days vs BTC and USD
Global Crypto Charts
For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.
Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $272.05 billion ( down from $288.56 billion 3 weeks ago)
Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin’s market share has risen to 42%, up from a recent low of 34% in early May. Looking longer-term, Bitcoin continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.
Market share of top 20 cryptocurrencies
The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 88% of the total crypto market share.
TradingView Technical Indicators
Based on data and info from TradingView (Click for 30% off a pro subscription)
Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3).
- BTC and ETH remain with weak trading signals
- ETH up 20% vs BTC and 18% vs USD over last 3 months
- USDT token has remained relatively stable
Google Trends hasn’t continued slight downward trend over last 90 days.
NVT Ratio – 170 – This long-term cycle tracking ratio has moved sideways recently. The ratio is very high and suggests BTC is towards the end of long-term cycle.
NVT Signal -This short-term signal has fallen to 123, up from 115 three weeks ago.
In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.
Willy Woo also recently published a Tweet thread where he suggested BTC may go to $5500-5700 next.
CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals.
Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, Kalvichikin’s NVT has moved sideways recently.
Articles of Note
— Crypto investor Ari Paul on the decline in valuations of ICO-funded projects.
“These things play out in slow motion, because both investors and projects are reluctant to realize mark-downs”
Early stage valuations fall to earth
Ari Paul The Cryptocurrency Investor
“These things play out in slow motion, because both investors and projects are reluctant to realize mark-downs, and the lack of a liquid exchange price means they can fool themselves. 1
— Mike Maples Jr on how crypto can help create better “commons” to benefit all via governance tokens to overcome the traditional problem of overuse via individual self-interest.
“As long as we discover new ways to create value, new types of businesses will emerge”
“The “Tragedy of the Commons” was coined by Garrett Hardin in 1968 as a critique of the commons. It describes how individuals, acting independently according to their self-interest, can accidentally destroy a shared resource.A real-world example is the Grand Banks Fisheries off the coast of Newfoundland, Canada. For centuries, explorers and fishermen marveled at this region’s endless supply of codfish. In the 1960s and 1970s, fishing technology improved and allowed much larger catches. By the 1990s, cod populations were so depleted that the Grand Banks Fisheries failed. It was too late for traditional governance in the form of regulation or private markets; the cod stocks were damaged irreparably.2
—– CryptoKitties sounds ridiculous to many – and extremely interesting to a small number of people. That’s often how big things start and non-fungible tokens have a lot of potential.
“may be at the cusp of a new wave of billion dollar companies that expand beyond the niche of digital collectibles.”
In Defense of CryptoKitties
Richard Chen The Control – Medium
“Working on things that could be dismissed as “toys” often produces good startup ideas. As Paul Graham explains in his essay “How to Get Startup Ideas”:3
— Speaking of NFTs, VC Fred Wilson wrote about a cryptokitty charity auction.
“a lineage of CryptoKittens ‘hatched’ to both raise funds and be ambassadors for causes and to be bought, sold, and bred within the game”
Honu – A CryptoKitty Charity Auction
Fred Wilson AVC
“It’s a first step in a broader project he is developing with Bill Tai to bring together incentivized communities through unique cryptoassets into a larger framework for non-profit projects everywhere.4
— Bitcoin investor Willy Woo on the difference in forecasting and predicting. He uses past information to forecast, similar to a meteorologist, rather than saying something will happen before the event.
“This is the masses losing objectivity and just getting emotional, which is exactly what we as traders wanna drop”
Overheard in a chatroom: Forecasting vs predicting
Willy Woo Woobull
“Most people have too much bias, it’s like they are “willing the price” in a direction they want, then drawing the chart. And noob traders are the most subjective, they try to predict and not forecast.
To this point, everytime I tweet a bear call, the noob troll armies attack, they don’t wanna hear it. Vinny Lingham’s bearish tweets [during the Bitcoin scaling debate] last year had the same issue, the trolling got so bad he ceased making price calls. This is the masses losing objectivity and just getting emotional, which is exactly what we as traders wanna drop.5
— Coinbase has strategically been slow to add new tokens, as they believe it the best way to bring crypto to the masses. There’s discussion of increasing the number of assets available in the future.
“Coinbase is moving toward an algorithm-fueled decision process for adding more tokens”
Coinbase CTO: Business in the Front, Party in the Back
Gerelyn Terzo Hacked: Hacking Finance
“Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan painted a different picture, saying the exchange is more like a mullet for its business6