Crypto Market Update 06.11.2018
Our weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources in an effort to get a less biased opinion of the market.
“Let’s say the market can support 4000 different monies, one public the others private..which services get tokenized? “
The ongoing experiment with bootstrap equilibria, also known as tokens
Tyler Cowen Marginal REVOLUTION 1
Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.
Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.
- Very poor week across the board
- All indexes are down over 20% vs USD over last 3 months
Global Crypto Charts
For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.
Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $299.54 billion ( vs $336.31 billion one week ago)
Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin’s market share has remained at 39%, up from a recent low of 34% in early May. Looking longer-term, Bitcoin continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.
Market share of top 20 cryptocurrencies
The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 85% of the total crypto market share.
TradingView Technical Indicators
Based on data and info from TradingView (Click for 30% off a pro subscription)
Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3).
- BTC and ETH trading signals look much worse vs 1 week ago
- BTC down up 3.5% vs USD over last week, down over 20% in last 30 days
- ETH has performed slightly better than BTC over last 7 days, lagging ~7% over last year
Google Trends have have shown slowly declining searches out after falling significantly in February.
I’m tempted to stop tracking this, as I believe there will be fewer searches as the public gains knowledge. However, significant price action could still lead to search volume surges.
NVT Ratio – This long-term cycle tracking ratio has continued the upward trend seen the last few weeks. The ratio is very high and suggests BTC is towards the end of long-term cycle.
NVT Signal -This short-term signal has risen to 130, up from 125 last week, continuing an upward trend.
In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.
Willy Woo also recently published a Tweet thread where he suggested BTC may go to $5500-5700 next.
CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals.
Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, Kalvichikin’s NVT
Articles of Note
“Developers are a lot more incentivized to build on a platform that they know is NOT going to change the rules…”
Ethereum Will Be the Backbone of the New Internet – Loom Network – Medium
James Martin Duffy Medium
“The number of developers using Ethereum’s Truffle Suite each month is not only growing — it’s accelerating.2
“$BTC.X investment theses to help “clarify how much of an impact a given narrative could have to Bitcoin’s valuation”
Bitcoin Investment Theses (Part 1) – Pierre Rochard – Medium
Pierre Rochard Medium
“Investment theses with a short holding period are focused on using bitcoins as a method of payment. Some of these theses would find ubiquitous usage while others are niche verticals. 3
$BTC “suggests that there are intrinsic economic limits to how economically important it can become in the first place”
The Economic Limits of Bitcoin and the Blockchain
Tyler Cowen Marginal REVOLUTION
“Perhaps the most positive scenario for Bitcoin is if those coordination costs rise with the returns to the attack itself, in which case a much higher market value for Bitcoin still might be stable
“a brand-new metric to factor in the growth in network value” & “a more responsive trading indicator”
“However, as described in this great article by Dmitry Kalichkin, the original NVT ratio (while an amazing theory) is not predictive or descriptive. You should check out his article but essentially what Dmitry and Cryptolab Capital found after experimenting is that the following NVT ratio works much better.
“Rebalancing a high performer is like selling down your Facebook convertible notes to get more MySpace”
When it’s time to rebalance your crypto-assets in your portfolio
Willy Woo Woobull
“I think rebalancing a crypto portfolio to reduce exposure to a single crypto-asset is the most intuitive yet completely wrong move long term investors make.