Crypto Market Outlook 04.16.2018

Crypto Market Update

Our weekly take on the crypto market. We primarily look at BTC and ETH, as it’s rare to see altcoins outperforming both. Still, we track the crypto market as a whole, looking for new opportunities and we hold a handful of altcoins.

TradingView Technical Indicators

BTCUSD – Buy signals on 1D and 30D, while neutral on 7D.
ETHUSD – Signals remain bearish with sell signals on 1D, 7D, and 30D basis

WooBull Charts

NVT RatioThis long-term cycle tracking ratio is very high, which is worrisom as it typically signifies a significant drop may be coming.

 

Bitcoin NVT Signal chart 04.16.2018

NVT Signal – Shorter-term signal has moved upward significantly over the last week and sits around 100. In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.

Overall, there is potential for the upward trend to continue in short-term, though NVT Ratio suggests a downturn is looming.

Google Trends

No significant changes, though a small bump this past week

CoinMetrics

kalvichkin nvt - btc

Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, this indicates BTC is trending upward in the short-run. ETHUSD shows very similar results.

kalvichkin nvt - eth

Articles of Note

Blockchain is not only crappy technology but a bad vision for the future:

There is no single person in existence who had a problem they wanted to solve, discovered that an available blockchain solution was the best way to solve it, and therefore became a blockchain enthusiast.

Many good points in this post, though it seems to overlook that applying blockchain to existing problems may not be the best utilization. Instead, there are new possibilities, such as those seen in utility tokens.

Cryptoassets: Flow & Reflexivity :

The experience of the last six months should serve as a lesson for cryptoasset investors about the sensitivities of the current crypto market structure, and the importance of being cognizant of flows and their second order effects. As for where we currently stand, concentrated tax selling is likely nearing completion, and reflexivity has driven sentiment to bearish extremes.⁴ Now we must wait and see how far the reverberations of reflexivity take crypto, before the market returns to a focus on fundamentals-driven growth

Our Take

We’re looking at BTC and crypto in general as a short-term opportunity. It still seems like a risky time, as NVT Ratio and NVT Signal imply a further correction is due.

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