Weekly Cycle: Market Outlook for 06.18.2018

Weekly Cycle: Market Outlook for 06.18.2018

Each week, we review the stock market using a specific set of information sources in order to cut through the noise generated by media publishing attention grabbing headlines. Weekly updates give e the opportunity to play trends while not overreacting on a daily basis.

 

“Technology innovation is happening in all sectors of our economy and all parts of the world”

“We now have more angel and seed and venture capital being invested in startups every year than ever before. It took a long time, almost twenty years, to pass the go-go years of 1999 and 2000, but pass it we have and even though many see that as a sign that we are in bubble territory again, I am not one of them. Technology innovation is happening in all sectors of our economy and all parts of the world. I think the expansion of capital being deployed into startups can continue for some time to come.1

Rapid Experimentation
Fred Wilson AVC

 

 

Market Performance

Performance of a handful of macro indexes, as well as index and ETFs on specific sectors of particular interest. 

Observations:

  • SPY slightly down over last week.
  • Overall, seeing less volatility across major indexes
  • Emerging markets [$VWO] down nearly 9% over last 3 months.

 

Technical Indicators

Based on data and info from TradingView (Click for 30% off a pro subscription)

Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3). 

Observations:

  • Tech remains strong [$QQQ, $HACK, $CQQQ]
  • [VFH] Financials weakened after one strong week last week
  • Worldwide indexes much worse than a week ago

 

OldProf’s Risk Analysis

Each week, at the Dash of Insight blog, OldProf takes a look at a variety of sources to gauge overall market risk on both a short and long-term basis. He tracks a handful of indexes, economic indicators from respected sources, and volatility indicators. His weekly updates include a discussion of events with potential to effect markets, as well as general insight. Highly recommended reading.

This week, OldProf writes in Weighing the Week Ahead: What is Working, and Will It Persist?

“Short-term trading conditions continue at favorable levels, much improved from a quarter ago. Also noteworthy is the reduced volatility.”

“My fundamental triad: Growth in expected earnings, low recession risk, and comparison of stocks with other easily purchased assets. I provide the ingredients every week. You need not read my entire post, although I appreciate those who do. You can just check out the indicator snapshot. And my secret sauce? I know enough to find real experts and then follow their lead.2

 

StockTrader Recap

Mark Hanna publishes a weekly Market Recap full of charts and insight on news and market trends at StockTrader.

This week, Mark writes in Weekly Market Recap Jun 17, 2018 – StockTrader.com

“Short term: The S&P 500 was quiet while the NASDAQ continued to churn up.”

“After two weeks of rallies, the S&P 500 mostly consolidated this week – except for Friday the action was very reminiscent of 2017 with almost no volatility at all intraday and modest gains or sideways action.3

 

Articles of note

“no guarantees that stocks will be up big over the long run [because] everyone has a different definition of.. long run”

Why Do Stocks Generally Go Up Over Time?

“The long-term track record of the world stock market is not perfect but it is quite compelling. However, long-term average returns are promised to no one because we don’t know what the future holds. In many ways, investing in the stock market is a faith-based exercise; faith in human ingenuity; faith in the capitalist system; and faith in other people wanting to improve their lot in life4

Buffett’s rule is absurd: “Anyone who has ever invested in the history of the world has lost money at one time”

The #1 Rule in Investing
Charlie Bilello pensionpartners.com

“In fact, the entire notion is absurd. Anyone who has ever invested in the history of the world has lost money at one time or another. Buffett himself lost close to 50% on two separate occasions.5

“a bad case by the government has led to, at best, a merger that was never examined for its truly anti-competitive elements”

AT&T, Time Warner, and the Need for Neutrality
Ben Thompson Stratechery by Ben Thompson

“The question is not what AT&T can do to increase the revenue potential of Time Warner content (which was the government’s focus), but rather what Time Warner content can do to increase the potential of AT&T’s services, particularly mobile.6

“constantly amazed at people’s ability to be completely blindsided by an unexpected event”

When the Unexpected Leads to the Unexpected

“There are things that happen in this world on a regular basis that are totally unexpected — natural disasters, accidents, terrorism, disease, tragedy, market crashes, geopolitical events and so on. There are certain things you can never really plan for in terms of when, how, and why they’ll happen.7

 

 

 

 

 

  1. https://avc.com/2018/06/rapid-experimentation/
  2. https://dashofinsight.com/weighing-the-week-ahead-what-is-working-and-will-it-persist/
  3. https://www.stocktrader.com/2018/06/18/weekly-market-recap-jun-17-2018/
  4. http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/06/why-do-stocks-generally-go-up-over-time/
  5. https://pensionpartners.com/the-1-rule-in-investing/
  6. https://stratechery.com/2018/the-need-for-neutrality/
  7. http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/06/when-the-unexpected-leads-to-the-unexpected/
  8. https://twitter.com/naval/status/1002106893265920000

Crypto Market Update for June 18, 2018

Crypto Market Update 06.18.2018

Our weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources in an effort to get a less biased opinion of the market. 

I love the term “frontier” because it beautifully captures the opportunities and perils involved. It sounds like a wide-open opportunity, adventurous, perhaps even romantic. But it’s also a place where you have a non-trivial chance of ending flat on your face with a bunch of arrows in your back.

Matt Turck – Investing in Frontier Tech

 

Crypto Indexes

The Bletchley Indexes “offer the most thoughtful and consistent approach to index construction” according to CoinMetrics. 

Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.

Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.

Observations

  • Down nearly 20% vs USD for both B10 and BTotal over last 3 months
  • No indexes are positive vs USD over last 7/30/09 days

 

Global Crypto Charts

For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.

Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $288.56 billion ( down from $299.54 billion one week ago)

Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s market share has remained at 39%, up from a recent low of 34% in early May. Looking longer-term, Bitcoin continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.

Market share of top 20 cryptocurrencies

The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 88% of the total crypto market share, a relatively significant rise from 85% a week ago suggesting smaller tokens and currencies have been hurt more than the larger currencies.

TradingView Technical Indicators

Based on data and info from TradingView (Click  for 30% off a pro subscription)

Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3). 

  • Not much change from a week ago. Both BTC and ETH remain with negative total technical indicator scores
  • ETH showing strength over BTC

 

CRYPTO PERFORMANCE

  • BTC down nearly 10% vs USD over last week and 20% over last month
  • ETH down over 10% in last week vs USD and 25% over last month

 

Google Trends

 

Google Trends saw a slight increase this past week, though still an overall downtrend since February 2018.

WooBull Charts

NVT Ratio –  182 – This long-term cycle tracking ratio has continued the upward trend seen the last few weeks. The ratio is very high and suggests BTC is towards the end of long-term cycle.

NVT Signal -This short-term signal has fallen to 115, down from 130 last week.

In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.

Willy Woo also recently published a Tweet thread where he suggested BTC may go to $5500-5700 next.

CoinMetrics Charts

CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals. 

Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, Kalvichikin’s NVT has dropped recently suggesting a short term downward trend.

Articles of Note

“don’t want Bitcoin and Ether to have the advantage of being the only tokens that are not deemed to be securities’

Ether Is Not A Security
Fred Wilson AVC

“this is not about Ether, but about the fact that a token can be used to raise capital (the “fundraising that accompanied the creation of Ether”) and at some point no longer resemble a security in the eyes of the SEC.1

“Smart contracts will significantly reduce transaction costs and thus let people create valuable, new private orderings.”

Towards An International Court of Smart Contract Arbitration
Alex Tabarrok Marginal REVOLUTION

“Contract law, for example, is filled with concepts like mistake, misrepresentation, duress, negligence and intention that are not easily formalized in code. Contract law is a human enterprise. And the humans who write contracts want law with terms like negligence precisely because these terms fill in for gaps which cannot be filled in and formalized in contracts let alone in code2

“It’s an odd choice. For background, Ethereum Classic was created during a hard fork of the Ethereum blockchain back in 2016.”

Coinbase Announces Listing Of Ethereum Classic
noahsayres Hacked: Hacking Finance

“Coinbase has finally added a fifth cryptocurrency to what was formally the “elite four” of the platform, Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin Cash3

“An oracle should be expected to share in the consequences  –  skin in the game is necessary”

Blockchain Oracles Will Make Smart Contracts Fly – Hacker Noon
Doug von Kohorn Hacker Noon

“an oracle provides a connection between real world events and a blockchain. In my opinion, all of the really interesting complex smart contracts require outside information — financial derivatives, gambling, stablecoins, identity4

“NFTs seem like a good platform for tokenizing all types of assets, digital or real”

Mapping the Emerging Non-Fungible Token Landscape – Point Nine Land – Medium
Medium

“As a passionate Magic the Gathering player in my early high school years, I can totally relate to the promise NFTs bear for digitizing collectible cards and see a natural initial application for them when it comes to gaming. This is also the area in which most of the current NFT projects are experimenting.However, I believe applications of NFTs can go far beyond that. For one, NFTs seem like a good platform for tokenizing all types of assets, digital or real, and to enable all the interesting crypto features for dealing with them, such as trustless transfers, trading or fractional ownership. This5

“all market-based exchange, price is determined by a meeting of the minds of a buyer and seller, not by an algorithm,”

“Stablecoins” are trending, but they may ignore basic economics
Mike Orcutt MIT Technology Review

“developers of stablecoins fail to account for basic economic principles by assuming that they will always be able to “incentivize users of their systems to purchase their coins at an arbitrary price.”6

“Prediction markets are speculative markets with the primary purpose of aggregating information rather than hedging risks.”

The Power of Prediction Markets – Gnosis
Nadja Beneš Gnosis

“Prediction markets are speculative markets with the primary purpose of aggregating information rather than hedging risks.7

” Whereas cloning is frowned upon in established tech, it is openly embraced in the blockchain ecosystem”

“Frontier Tech” And Blockchain / Crypto – Mike Dudas – Medium
Medium

“There is the Bitcoin maximalist tribe, the Ethereum disciples, the security token believers and the enterprise blockchain evangelists. Each believes in their own purity of purpose of intentions, while many show skepticism at the purity and purpose of others who don’t think the same way. This is because they all “believe”: it is an ecosystem where the missionaries far outweigh the mercenaries8

 

  1. https://avc.com/2018/06/ether-is-not-a-security/
  2. http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/06/towards-international-court-smart-contract-arbitration.html
  3. https://hacked.com/coinbase-announces-listing-of-ethereum-classic/
  4. https://hackernoon.com/oracles-help-smart-contracts-resolve-subjective-events-d81639d8291c
  5. https://medium.com/point-nine-news/mapping-the-emerging-non-fungible-token-landscape-ee56f0d1079f
  6. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611370/stablecoins-are-trending-but-they-may-ignore-basic-economics/
  7. https://blog.gnosis.pm/the-power-of-prediction-markets-fedea0b71244
  8. https://medium.com/@mdudas/frontier-tech-and-blockchain-crypto-b3073b287c2e

Crypto Market Update 06.11.2018

Crypto Market Update 06.11.2018

Our weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources in an effort to get a less biased opinion of the market. 

 

“Let’s say the market can support 4000 different monies, one public the others private..which services get tokenized? “

The ongoing experiment with bootstrap equilibria, also known as tokens
Tyler Cowen Marginal REVOLUTION 1

 

Crypto Indexes

The Bletchley Indexes “offer the most thoughtful and consistent approach to index construction” according to CoinMetrics. 

Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.

Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.

Observations

  • Very poor week across the board
  • All indexes are down over 20% vs USD over last 3 months

 

Global Crypto Charts

For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.

Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $299.54 billion ( vs $336.31 billion one week ago)

Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s market share has remained at 39%, up from a recent low of 34% in early May. Looking longer-term, Bitcoin continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.

Market share of top 20 cryptocurrencies

The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 85% of the total crypto market share.

TradingView Technical Indicators

Based on data and info from TradingView (Click  for 30% off a pro subscription)

Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3). 

  • BTC and ETH trading signals look much worse vs 1 week ago

 

CRYPTO PERFORMANCE

 

  • BTC down up 3.5% vs USD over last week, down over 20% in last 30 days
  • ETH has performed slightly better than BTC over last 7 days, lagging ~7% over last year

 

Google Trends

 

Google Trends have have shown slowly declining searches out after falling significantly in February.

I’m tempted to stop tracking this, as I believe there will be fewer searches as the public gains knowledge. However, significant price action could still lead to search volume surges.

WooBull Charts

NVT Ratio This long-term cycle tracking ratio has continued the upward trend seen the last few weeks. The ratio is very high and suggests BTC is towards the end of long-term cycle.

NVT Signal -This short-term signal has risen to 130, up from 125 last week, continuing an upward trend.

In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.

Willy Woo also recently published a Tweet thread where he suggested BTC may go to $5500-5700 next.

CoinMetrics Charts

CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals. 

Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, Kalvichikin’s NVT

Articles of Note

“Developers are a lot more incentivized to build on a platform that they know is NOT going to change the rules…”

Ethereum Will Be the Backbone of the New Internet – Loom Network – Medium
James Martin Duffy Medium

“The number of developers using Ethereum’s Truffle Suite each month is not only growing — it’s accelerating.2

“$BTC.X investment theses to help “clarify how much of an impact a given narrative could have to Bitcoin’s valuation”

Bitcoin Investment Theses (Part 1) – Pierre Rochard – Medium
Pierre Rochard Medium

“Investment theses with a short holding period are focused on using bitcoins as a method of payment. Some of these theses would find ubiquitous usage while others are niche verticals. 3

$BTC “suggests that there are intrinsic economic limits to how economically important it can become in the first place”

The Economic Limits of Bitcoin and the Blockchain
Tyler Cowen Marginal REVOLUTION

“Perhaps the most positive scenario for Bitcoin is if those coordination costs rise with the returns to the attack itself, in which case a much higher market value for Bitcoin still might be stable
4

“a brand-new metric to factor in the growth in network value” & “a more responsive trading indicator”

Improvements on the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) Ratio & Introducing Network…
Vikram Arun Medium

“However, as described in this great article by Dmitry Kalichkin, the original NVT ratio (while an amazing theory) is not predictive or descriptive. You should check out his article but essentially what Dmitry and Cryptolab Capital found after experimenting is that the following NVT ratio works much better.
5

“Rebalancing a high performer is like selling down your Facebook convertible notes to get more MySpace”

When it’s time to rebalance your crypto-assets in your portfolio
Willy Woo Woobull

“I think rebalancing a crypto portfolio to reduce exposure to a single crypto-asset is the most intuitive yet completely wrong move long term investors make.
6

 

  1. http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/06/ongoing-experiment-bootstrap-equilibria-also-known-tokens.html
  2. https://medium.com/loom-network/ethereum-will-be-the-backbone-of-the-new-internet-88718e08124f
  3. https://medium.com/@pierre_rochard/bitcoin-investment-theses-part-1-e97670b5389b
  4. http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/06/economic-limits-bitcoin-blockchain.html
  5. https://medium.com/ledgercapital/improvements-on-the-network-value-to-transactions-nvt-ratio-introducing-network-569569f6b3e3
  6. https://woobull.com/on-portfolio-rebalancing/

Weekly Cycle: Market Outlook for 06.11.2018

Weekly Cycle: Market Outlook for 06.04.2018

Each week, we review the stock market using a specific set of information sources in order to cut through the noise generated by media publishing attention grabbing headlines. Weekly updates give e the opportunity to play trends while not overreacting on a daily basis.

 

“In our ordinary state of mind, we can only achieve ordinary things. All success comes from the ability to transcend routine”

The Unappreciated Key to Success
Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D. TraderFeed1

 

Market Performance

Performance of a handful of macro indexes, as well as index and ETFs on specific sectors of particular interest. 

Observations:

  • Homebuilders Index [$XHB] up 4% in last week
  • Tech [$QQQ, $HACK, $CQQQ] all up over 25% over last year
  • VIX “only” up 8% vs 1 year ago, which is surprising given the narrative of market volatility

 

Technical Indicators

Based on data and info from TradingView (Click for 30% off a pro subscription)

Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3). 

Observations:

○ $SPY, $VTI still look strong
○ $MJ looks much improved fr
○ Emerging markets $VWO and $BKF much improved
○ $VIX has dropped significantly since a week ago

 

OldProf’s Risk Analysis

Each week, at the Dash of Insight blog, OldProf takes a look at a variety of sources to gauge overall market risk on both a short and long-term basis. He tracks a handful of indexes, economic indicators from respected sources, and volatility indicators. His weekly updates include a discussion of events with potential to effect markets, as well as general insight. Highly recommended reading.

This week, OldProf writes that “Short-term trading conditions continue at favorable levels, much improved from the month-ago data“, much improved from the month-ago data.”

“The market reaction suggests that most agree with my assessment: It is a problem, but not an immediate problem.2

 

StockTrader Recap

Mark Hanna publishes a weekly Market Recap full of charts and insight on news and market trends at StockTrader.

This week, Mark writes:

“Last week was much like the ones we saw throughout 2017! Up, up, up nice and slow… with little volatility.”

“Short term: The S&P 500 finally broke out of this range marked in yellow.”3

 

Articles of note

—-

“odds of a positive May – October are only slightly below the odds of a positive return from November – April”

Buy in May and Stay Invested
Charlie Bilello pensionpartners.com

“the returns from May through October are still positive, with the average May-October up 3.9% and the median up 5.3%4

 

“Uber has the biggest advantage of all: the millions of people who already have the app”

The Scooter Economy
Ben Thompson Stratechery by Ben Thompson

“What is striking about dockless scooters — at least when one is parked outside your door! — is that they make ride-sharing services feel like half-measures: why even wait five minutes, when you can just scan-and-go?
5

$WMT looking ahead – “IBEF projects ecommerce sales in India to surpass the U.S. by 2034”

What the Walmart-Flipkart Deal Means for India
Manish Dudharejia Practical Ecommerce6

“Fox News manipulated the most vulnerable people in America to the most powerful drug cocktail ever: Visceral gut feelings of existential outrage”

FEAR & UNbalanced: Confessions of a 14-Year Fox News Hitman
Medium

“Well it’s obvious now: Partisan conservative politics staged and acted out as performance art was Roger’s “gift” to America. Above all else, Roger understood and practiced the concept of “culture trolling” before the term “trolling” ever became commonly used.
7

“Each fatality of a self driving car will cut the number of VC’s likely to invest in #AI by half”

AI winter – Addendum
Piekniewski’s blog

“Same for every AI startup that quietly folds down. At the same time those who already heavily invested, will be pumping the propaganda while quietly trying to liquidate their assets. It is only once there is nobody to buy this, which is long after seed financing had dried out, when the AI winter becomes official.8

$SPLK will “deliver a “platform of engagement” that combines event management, monitoring, on-call management, and ChatOps.”

Splunk to acquire DevOps incident management platform VictorOps for $120 million
Paul Sawers VentureBeat
9

 

 

 

 

 

  1. http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2018/06/the-unappreciated-key-to-success.html
  2. https://dashofinsight.com/weighing-the-week-ahead-do-individual-investors-face-a-pivotal-decision/
  3. https://www.stocktrader.com/2018/06/11/weekly-market-recap-jun-10-2018/
  4. https://pensionpartners.com/buy-in-may-and-stay-invested/
  5. https://stratechery.com/2018/the-scooter-economy/
  6. https://www.practicalecommerce.com/walmart-flipkart-deal-means-india
  7. https://medium.com/@tobinsmith_95851/how-roger-ailes-fox-news-scammed-americas-la-z-boy-cowboys-for-21-years-1996ee4a6b3e
  8. https://blog.piekniewski.info/2018/06/06/ai-winter-addendum/
  9. https://venturebeat.com/2018/06/11/splunk-to-acquire-devops-incident-management-platform-victorops-for-120-million/

Crypto Market Update 06.04.2018

Crypto Market Update 06.04.2018

Our weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources in an effort to get a less biased opinion of the market. 

 

“Let’s say the market can support 4000 different monies, one public the others private..which services get tokenized? “

The ongoing experiment with bootstrap equilibria, also known as tokens
Tyler Cowen Marginal REVOLUTION 1

 

Crypto Indexes

The Bletchley Indexes “offer the most thoughtful and consistent approach to index construction” according to CoinMetrics. 

Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.

Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.

Observations

  • A positive week for BTC vs USD, with the B10 Index outperforming BTC by ~3%
  • B10 and BTotal even indexes slightly underperformed weighted indexes over past 7 days, which is a typical
  • All sector indexes were positive over last week vs USD and BTC.
  • All sector indexes outpferformed B10 and BTotal last week
  • Platform index up over 12% vs USD over last week, down nearly 20% past month

 

Global Crypto Charts

For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.

Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $336.31 billion ( vs $326.65 billion one week ago)

Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s market share has climbed to 39%, up from a recent low of 34% in early May. Looking longer-term, Bitcoin continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.

Market share of top 20 cryptocurrencies

The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 86% of the total crypto market share.

TradingView Technical Indicators

Based on data and info from TradingView (Click  for 30% off a pro subscription)

Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3). 

  • BTC and ETH have turned much more positive vs USD since last week
  • ETH indicators show significant strength over BTC

 

CRYPTO PERFORMANCE

  • BTC down up 3.5% vs USD over last week, down over 20% in last 30 days
  • ETH has performed slightly better than BTC over last 7 days, lagging ~7% over last year

 

Google Trends

 

Google Trends have have shown slowly declining searches out after falling significantly in February.

I’m tempted to stop tracking this, as I believe there will be fewer searches as the public gains knowledge. However, significant price action could still lead to search volume surges.

WooBull Charts

NVT Ratio This long-term cycle tracking ratio has continued the upward trend seen last week. The ratio is very high and suggests BTC is towards the end of long-term cycle.

NVT Signal -This short-term signal has risen to 125, up from 115 last week, continuing an upward trend.

In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.

Willy Woo also recently published a Tweet thread where he suggested BTC may go to $5500-5700 next.

CoinMetrics Charts

CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals. 

Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, Kalvichikin’s NVT

Articles of Note

 

“Blockchains and tokenization are a way to incentivize the creation of a commons.”

Blockchains and the Opportunity of the Commons
Alex Tabarrok Marginal REVOLUTION

“Precisely because the blockchain is unowned the designers have to get much more correct, right out of the gate. Changing a commons on the fly, forking, is costly, disruptive and not always possible
2

“Flipside have built a service which allows individuals to buy baskets of #cryptoassets – a new one is released each day”

Coinmetrics, Flipside, and Secure Chains
the Coinmetrics Team Coin Metrics

“So this morning Flipside Crypto, a data-driven asset manager, released their Coinmetrics secure chains basket.
3

“Once you move past speculative pricing of cryptocurrencies and ICOs, Blockchains are a way to create economies.”

CryptoEconomics : Why Blockchains need Computer Scientists & Economists to come together?
Medium

“An alternate interpretation of CryptoEconomics is at the application layer: creating incentives for each participant to either create or consume value, using a token as a medium of exchange for the transaction.
4

“I don’t want to hold cash as working capital – I‘d rather stay fully invested while my wallet proportionally sells assets”

The Security Token Thesis – Hacker Noon
Hacker Noon

“lay out the reasons why security tokens dominate other methods of recording and trading ownership claims. Taken together, the features listed below form the foundation of the thesis that security tokens will see widespread adoption across numerous asset classes in the coming years.
5

“Instead of looking at “blockchain”, look at what you actually need and see what fits you best.”

Alternatives to Blockchain – Jimmy Song – Medium
Medium

“some alternatives that use aspects of blockchain technology that do a lot of what “blockchain” advocates claim, but do it a lot cheaper.
6

“The peak $BTC.X price coincided with the day bitcoin futures started trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange”

How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

“The peak price coincided with the introduction of bitcoin futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The rapid run-up and subsequent fall in the price after the introduction of futures does not appear to be a coincidence. Rather, it is consistent with trading behavior that typically accompanies the introduction of futures markets for an asset.
7

 

 

Our Take

Short term: bullish though cautious as a bear market may still be coming.
Long-term: very bullish, especially on dapps and digital assets

  1. http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/06/ongoing-experiment-bootstrap-equilibria-also-known-tokens.html
  2. http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2018/06/blockchains-opportunity-commons.html
  3. https://coinmetrics.io/coinmetrics-flipside-and-secure-chains/
  4. https://medium.com/koinearth/cryptoeconomics-why-blockchains-need-computer-scientists-economists-to-come-together-fd0eda583834
  5. https://hackernoon.com/the-security-token-thesis-4c5904761063
  6. https://medium.com/@jimmysong/alternatives-to-blockchain-9f858c0a1f2d
  7. https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2018/may/how-futures-trading-changed-bitcoin-prices/

Crypto Market Outlook 05.29.2018

the root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work. The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust. Banks must be trusted to hold our money and transfer it electronically, but they lend it out in waves of credit bubbles with barely a fraction in reserve. We have to trust them with our privacy, trust them not to let identity thieves drain our accounts.

Satoshi Nakamoto on February 11, 2009

Bitcoin open source implementation of P2P currency

Crypto Market Update

Our weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources in order to cut through attention grabbing headlines and get a less biased opinion of the market. 

Crypto Indexes

The Bletchley Indexes “offer the most thoughtful and consistent approach to index construction” according to CoinMetrics. 

Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.

Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.

Observations

  • Bletchley 10 and Total Market down significantly vs USD over past week (-20%)
  • Very negative performance for B10 and BTotal over last 3 months
  • Even Indexes continued to underperform weighted indexes
  • Platform, Application, and Currency indexes all down against USD and BTC over last week
  • Only the application index remains positive over last 3 months vs BTY, yet still significantly underperformed USD

 

Global Crypto Charts

For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.

Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $326.65 billion ( vs $379.72 billion one week ago)

Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s market share has climbed to 38%, a recent. Looking longer-term, Bitcoin continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.

Market share of top 20 cryptocurrencies

The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 86% of the total crypto market share.

TradingView Technical Indicators

Based on data and info from TradingView (Click  for 30% off a pro subscription)

Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3). 

  • BTC and ETH have turned much more negative vs USD since last week
  • ETH signals look somewhat better than BTC

CRYPTO PERFORMANCE

  • BTC down over 11% vs USD over last week and nearly 30% over last 3 months
  • ETH and BTC have performed similarly vs USD over last year

 

Google Trends

 

Google Trends have have shown slowly declining searches out after falling significantly in February.

I’m tempted to stop tracking this, as I believe there will be fewer searches as the public gains knowledge. However, significant price action could still lead to search volume surges.

WooBull Charts

NVT Ratio This long-term cycle tracking ratio has spiked significantly in the past week, continuing the uptick seen in the last few days before last week’s update. The ratio is very high and suggests a correction could be due and that this is the end of long-term cycle.

NVT Signal -This short-term signal has moved down slightly over the past week from 122 to 115. It has broken a support trend, suggesting bearish price movement in the short term.

In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.

Willy Woo also recently published a Tweet thread where he suggested BTC may go to $5500-5700 next.

CoinMetrics Charts

CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals. 

Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, Kalvichikin’s NVT has dropped recently, indicating a bearish short term market.

Articles of Note

“Yesterday we were provided with an incredible reminder of why Bitcoin’s slow and steady + simple approach when it comes to development is the right call in the long-run.”

Marty’s Ƀent – May 23rd, 2018 – Issue #238
Master List Archive Feed

“The more complex projects try to get in an attempt to create “fairness” the bigger their attack surface gets. Verge thought five mining algorithms was a clever way to make their network fairer, but have discovered that they just made the network more insecure. Apparently, Verge wasn’t the only chain to experience an attack this week”
1

“It’s interesting to think about what the landscape will look like 3–5 years from now, and which DEXs will manage to carve out significant market”

Token Economy #50: Paradox?
Yannick Roux Token Economy – Medium

“And Coinbase isn’t the only centralized exchange entering the DEX arena, Binance is also building its own version. It’s interesting to think about what the landscape will look like 3–5 years from now, and which DEXs will manage to carve out significant market share independently and how, if at all. ”
2

“Content provided by creators gets instantly tokenized, published to the Fan Bits marketplace, and pays out Ethereum to the creator after each sale”

Announcing Fan Bits: A DIY crypto-collectible creation platform
Medium

“While there’s clear demand for this kind of asset, creating crypto-collectibles is a highly technical pursuit that requires extensive development work. We’re ecstatic to announce that that’s about to change.”
3

“It manages more than 20 million accounts, almost as many as Fidelity Investments, twice as many as Charles Schwab and about as many accounts as Vanguard has investors.”

Move deliberately, fix things: How Coinbase is building a cryptocurrency empire
Brian Fung Washington Post

“But in many ways, Coinbase styles itself the anti-start-up. Its attitude, both hungry and calculating, may be the key to its survival as it seeks to sell the world — from mom-and-pop investors to massive hedge funds — on the idea that it has become to cryptocurrency what Google is to Web searches.”
4

“Our final estimate from looking at the UTXO age distribution is that between 3–3.8M BTC are lost.”

Bitcoin Data Science (Pt. 2): The Geology of Lost Coins
Dhruv Bansal Unchained Capital Blog – Medium

“We believe bitcoin loss occurred over two distinct “cryptogeologic” eras:Systemic loss: a large cohort of BTC which was mined together and lost together in the earliest days of Bitcoin by Satoshi and the other first miners. (Bitcoin’s carboniferous period.)Incremental loss: BTC lost by individual users gradually over different periods of time.”
5

 

Our Take

Short-term: The crypto market continues to look bearish in the short-term. We’re still bullish long-term and believe there are interesting projects right now that will establish themselves for the long term.

  1. https://mailchi.mp/4c3c61136fe8/martys-bent-may-23rd-2017-issue-238
  2. https://tokeneconomy.co/token-economy-50-paradox-d8f2270c0dce
  3. https://medium.com/@fanbits/announcing-fan-bits-a-diy-crypto-collectible-creation-platform-7028616e13e1
  4. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/move-deliberately-fix-things-how-coinbase-is-building-a-cryptocurrency-empire/2018/05/17/623d950c-587c-11e8-858f-12becb4d6067_story.html
  5. https://blog.unchained-capital.com/bitcoin-data-science-pt-2-the-geology-of-lost-coins-79e5a0dc6d1?source=rss—-c6f7bef2c97e—4

Recent Market Performance

Performance of a handful of macro indexes, as well as index and ETFs on specific sectors of particular interest. Used in our Weekly Cycle: Market Outlook Updates.

Stock Ticker
SPY274.24-0.63%-1.04%0.32%3.44%12.93%
VTI142.85-0.70%-0.90%1.24%4.57%14.52%
BOND102.720.04%0.00%0.23%-0.98%-3.59%
VWO42.72-1.41%-3.35%-5.53%-9.41%5.27%
VEA43.46-0.69%-2.25%-3.59%-1.05%5.66%
VEU52.52-0.91%-2.40%-4.02%-3.03%5.38%
VFH69.62-0.26%-0.66%-2.29%-0.16%13.87%
VNQ80.160.48%0.59%3.27%9.17%-5.32%
VIX13.586.18%
QQQ175.71-0.87%-0.72%3.60%6.88%24.88%
HACK38.47-0.95%-1.41%3.53%10.77%26.71%
CQQQ58.18-1.56%-4.72%-1.54%-6.54%23.00%
BKF42.69-1.59%-3.92%-5.03%-8.51%14.33%
MJ31.722.59%5.77%3.09%3.12%8.44%
XHB40.09-1.06%-1.93%1.44%-2.05%4.10%

Crypto Outlook: Quantity Counts

Crypto Market Update

My weekly update on the crypto market intends to look at the market from a macro perspective. With a majority of the crypto market cap concentrated on Bitcoin and a handful of other tokens, my focus is on the major coins. I check a standard set of information sources each week and include links to articles of interest.

Crypto Indexes

The Bletchley Indexes “offer the most thoughtful and consistent approach to index construction” according to CoinMetrics. 

Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.

Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.

bletchley crypto indexes 05-07-2018

Obserservations

  • The Bletchley 10 is up over 75% vs USD over last month. As has been the case historically, the even index performed even better, up nearly 100% vs the dollar.
  • The total indexes have seen similar results over the last month, both versus the dollar, as well as mirroring the improved performance of the even-index.
  • Currency Index has improved over the last week after lagging behind application and platform indexes over last month.
  • All three sectors have outperformed BTC over last 30 days, though only currency shows positive gains over last week.

Global Crypto Charts

For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.

Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies

crypto total market cap 05.07.18

Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin’s market share has declined to ~38%, close to all-time lows. This continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.

Marketshare of top 20 cryptocurrencies

The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 86% of the total crypto market share.

TradingView Technical Indicators

Based on data and info from TradingView (Click  for 30% off a pro subscription)

crypto tradingview technical signals 05.07.18

Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3). 

  • ETH has surged compared to BTC and USD over the last month. Technical indicators suggest the tide may be swinging to favor BTC in the short term.
  • USDT has outperformed USD by over 6% in the last year.

CRYPTO PERFORMANCE

crypto performance 05.07.18

  • BTC has been mostly flat the past week, while ETH has surged.
  • ETH has doubled over the last month (versus USD)

Google Trends

bitcoin google trends

Google Trends have mostly flattened out after falling significantly in February.

I’m hesitant to keep tracking this, as my assumption is that there will be less searches as the public gains knowledge and no longer needs to search for the term. However, significant price action could still lead to search volume surges.

WooBull Charts

Bitcoin NVT Ratio - 05.07.2018

NVT RatioThis long-term cycle tracking ratio has continued it’s downward trend yet remains well above the long term “normal range,” suggesting a downward turn could be imminent.

 

Bitcoin NVT Signal Chart 05.07.2018

NVT Signal – This short-term signal continued its upward trend again, reaching a recent high of 142. In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.

Overall, there is potential for the upward trend to continue in short-term, though NVT Ratio suggests a downturn is looming.

CoinMetrics Charts

CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals. 

Kalvichkin's NVT - BTC ETH 05.07.2018

Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, this suggests an upward trend is likely to continue for both BTC and ETH in the short term.

Articles of Note

Is Ether a security?

I tend to overlook most regulatory concerns, assuming they’ll sort themselves out and should only be speed bumps in the long run. If the SEC determines ETH is a security, it could have repercussions for some whales. The fact that VCs have lobbied the SEC for a ‘safe harbor’ both shows how important this is, and makes me think there won’t be any major negative impact with some sort of compromise reached.

Crypto Moats

The open nature of crypto currencies allows for code to be copied or forked easily, making it much harder to establish moats (to use a Warren Buffet phrase) to protect from competitors.

Robert Miller, Director of Business Development @medical_chain, wrote on the topic and suggested some potential moats, including:

  • Superior brand
  • Superior developers
  • Partially/fully closed source code
    “Cryptocurrencies might withhold some or all of their code in the future to keep competitors from taking their code. Spencer Noon touches on this in his post The Persistent Forker but developers could put their code in a “black box” that was able to prove the code did not change over time.”
  •  Life span
    “Nassim Taleb introduces the idea of the Lindy Effect in his book Antifragile. The Lindy Effect states the future life expectancy of non-perishable assets is proportional to their current age. In other words, the longer something has been around the longer we can expect it to stay around.”
  • Network effects
  • Good governance
Fred Wilson counters Warren Buffet on Crypto Investing

Speaking of Warren Buffet, he recently made some remarks about Bitcoin and crypto, saying:

When you buy cryptocurrency, Buffett continues, “You aren’t investing when you do that. You’re speculating. There’s nothing wrong with it. If you wanna gamble somebody else will come along and pay more money tomorrow, that’s one kind of game. That is not investing.”

On AVC, Venture capitalist Fred Wilson countered by stating that he’s not looking at crypto correctly, assuming they are collectibles, rather than fuel:

But what these crypto tokens are is entirely something else. They are the fuel that powers a new form of technology infrastructure that is being built on top of the foundational internet protocols. Ethereum and EOS are smart contract platforms that allow developers to create decentralized applications (Dapps in the vernacular of crypto). Bitcoin and Zcash are stores of value that allow users to participate in this decentralized application space without the need for fiat currencies.

It’s a good counter from someone who invests more like Buffet than many might assume, given they both look to buy and hold for a long investment period.

The end of ICOs

While enormous amounts are still being raised in ICOs, with over $8 billion raised in 2018 already, it’s increasingly coming in private sales. In the Token Economy newsletter, Stefano Bernardi writes about the downside:

And I’m bored.
I’m bored because I now see startups having to spend 6 figure sums on lawyers instead of building their products.
I’m bored because I see people making a killing from being accredited investors and thus being able to access opportunities that others can’t.
And I’m bored because all of this regulatory attention and focus is necessary, given that the scammers army has found its new honeypot.
We really can’t have nice things.

And makes his prediction for the future of ICOs:

Very hard to say, but our guess is that “normal” VC rounds will become more of a norm, there will be fewer public ICOs from legit projects, and the tokens will trade on exchanges directly with the company, or its treasury unit, or some specifically chosen early investors acting as market makers.

 Why Decentralization Matters

Many of the early believers in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies were attracted by the hope for decentralized systems. Spencer Bogart writes that the path to decentralization may be through centralization first. He cites problems with going do a decentralized model too early, as well as problems with becoming too centralized:

Either these platforms will offer strong assurances (“permissionless-ness”), in which case they will attract “sovereign-grade” attackers (and “platform-grade” censorship resistance will be insufficient) OR they will embrace censorship and permission-ing, in which case they will end up as less efficient varieties of today’s centralized platforms. Regardless, neither path appears sustainable.

The path forward: Highly decentralized base layer with increased centralization (and efficiency) on higher layers

He acknowledges a trend toward further centralization and it optimistic:

Instead, I’m most optimistic that highly decentralized networks will provide the robust foundation on top of which we can realize the efficiencies of centralization in higher layers — should it be desired. It’s a path that will likely take longer and be more difficult to build, but it might be the only viable route medium- to long-term.

Final Thoughts

A story from The Process Matters by Nick Maggiulli:

On the first day of ceramics class the teacher announced that the students would be split into two groups. One group would be graded on the quantity of the work they produced while the other group would be graded on the quality of the work they produced. The “quantity” group had to create as many clay pots as possible over the next few months while the “quality” group had to produce a single clay pot as best they could.

Months later as the students turned in their pots to be graded, the teacher came to a surprising realization — all of the highest quality pots were produced by students in the “quantity” group.

Regardless of regulatory action, crypto is here and it’s not going away. There’s a number of projects live, more in development, and even more that are just being conceived. Some projects will work, many won’t. The number of successes will increase as more projects are created. It’s early.

 

 

Crypto Market Outlook 04.16.2018

Crypto Market Update

Our weekly take on the crypto market. We primarily look at BTC and ETH, as it’s rare to see altcoins outperforming both. Still, we track the crypto market as a whole, looking for new opportunities and we hold a handful of altcoins.

TradingView Technical Indicators

BTCUSD – Buy signals on 1D and 30D, while neutral on 7D.
ETHUSD – Signals remain bearish with sell signals on 1D, 7D, and 30D basis

WooBull Charts

NVT RatioThis long-term cycle tracking ratio is very high, which is worrisom as it typically signifies a significant drop may be coming.

 

Bitcoin NVT Signal chart 04.16.2018

NVT Signal – Shorter-term signal has moved upward significantly over the last week and sits around 100. In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.

Overall, there is potential for the upward trend to continue in short-term, though NVT Ratio suggests a downturn is looming.

Google Trends

No significant changes, though a small bump this past week

CoinMetrics

kalvichkin nvt - btc

Kalvichkin’s NVT – Similar to NVT Signal, this indicates BTC is trending upward in the short-run. ETHUSD shows very similar results.

kalvichkin nvt - eth

Articles of Note

Blockchain is not only crappy technology but a bad vision for the future:

There is no single person in existence who had a problem they wanted to solve, discovered that an available blockchain solution was the best way to solve it, and therefore became a blockchain enthusiast.

Many good points in this post, though it seems to overlook that applying blockchain to existing problems may not be the best utilization. Instead, there are new possibilities, such as those seen in utility tokens.

Cryptoassets: Flow & Reflexivity :

The experience of the last six months should serve as a lesson for cryptoasset investors about the sensitivities of the current crypto market structure, and the importance of being cognizant of flows and their second order effects. As for where we currently stand, concentrated tax selling is likely nearing completion, and reflexivity has driven sentiment to bearish extremes.⁴ Now we must wait and see how far the reverberations of reflexivity take crypto, before the market returns to a focus on fundamentals-driven growth

Our Take

We’re looking at BTC and crypto in general as a short-term opportunity. It still seems like a risky time, as NVT Ratio and NVT Signal imply a further correction is due.

Market Outlook April 02, 2018

Technical Indicators

All of the indexes we follow have turned to bearish signals on daily timeframes. HACK remains the only index with a ‘buy’ rating on weekly timeframes.

With the exception of BOND, all indexes we follow still have buy ratings on monthly timeframes.

 

-2 = strong sell
-1 = sell
0 = neutral
1 = buy
2 = strong buy

Score gives 3x weight to 30-day indicators and 2x weight to 7-day indicators.

What others are saying

1 . Old Prof cautions about short-term trading, though believes long-term fundamentals remain positive.

Short-term trading conditions worsened this week. In mildly bearish conditions our trading approaches can still be profitable, but that might not be true for everyone. We continue to monitor the technical health measures on a daily basis. If this indicator goes to fullish bearish, we liquidate trading positions. This is not a forecast that the market will decline. It indicates increased difficulty in trading profitably.

The long-term fundamentals and outlook are little changed. The FOMC decision flattened the yield curve a bit, and that is one component of the C-Score. Based upon historical data for this indicator, I have increased the 9-month recession probability to the 18% range. I am monitoring, but not yet especially worried. Please see James Picerno below.

He also warns that Canadian marijuana stocks may be overvalued:

Pot stocks, according to a cover story in Barron’s. Bill Alpert analyzes the Canadian stocks, comparing valuations to other markets like gold and alcohol. He writes:

As they often do, investors have celebrated this emerging business early by embracing Canadian companies that claim a cannabis connection. Traveling in Canada, cabbies, bankers, and even border guards will tell you their favorites in a bubble that has floated Canadian cannabis stocks to a collective stock-market value above $30 billion. That’s already about half the market capitalization of Canada’s gold mining industry.

 

 

2. At StockTrader, Mark Hanna writes about the potential huge surge in corporate earnings:

2018 will be the year the massive corporate tax cuts boost earnings.

According to FactSet, earnings for companies in the S&P 500 are expected to grow 17.3% in the first quarter. Not only would that represent the fastest pace of profit growth since the first quarter of 2011, but expectations have been swiftly ratcheted up over the past few months. At the end of December, analysts were expecting a growth rate of 11.4%. Much of that increase was due to the recently passed tax-reform bill.

Stocks

  • Solar stocks like SEDG and RUN are holding up well in a volatile market
  • OSTK is down over 40% over the 30 days
  • BSBR (banco santander) has been added to our watchlist after reaching new all time highs with an attractive P/E ratio of ~16. More research to be conducted.

Outlook

Remaining mostly invested and looking into income producing assets and real estate projects to hedge should the market continue showing signs of weakness.