Crypto Market Update 07.16.2018
Our weekly crypto market update uses a standard set of information sources in an effort to get a less biased opinion of the market.
CRYPTO INDEX PERFORMANCE
Original “top X” indexes were launched in June 2017, followed by a market-wide index in December 2017 and sector specific indexes in February 2018. In total, there are 13 Bletchley indexes, with charts over various timetables available for each on their site.
Below is an alternate view of the performance based on the downloadable data made available by Bletchley. This view is intended to give a side-by-side snapshot of a handful of indexes.
- B10/USD down over 5% in last week and down over 65% over last 6 months
- BTOTAL/USD Even index down nearly 10% in last week
- Platform, App, and Currency index all negative vs USD in past 7/30/90 days
Global Crypto Charts
For a quick look at the global markets from another perspective, Coinlib.io provides simple charts with a lot of info, including Bitcoin marketshare, a visualization of the top 20 currencies by volume and market cap, and more.
Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: $262.05 billion ( down from $272.05 billion 1 week ago)
Market Share of Top Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin’s market share sits at 41%, up from a recent low of 34% in early May. Looking longer-term, Bitcoin continues a long-term declining trend, with new currencies such as EOS and BCH taking some of that market share.
Market share of top 20 cryptocurrencies
The top 20 currencies (by market cap) currently make up roughly 88% of the total crypto market share.
TradingView Technical Indicators
Based on data and info from TradingView (Click for 30% off a pro subscription)
Scores based on the cumulative total of positive and negative technical indicators signals over three time horizons on Trading View. Scores are weighted by multiplying total as follows: daily (x 1) weekly (x 2), and monthly (x 3).
- Little change in trading signals for BTC and ETH
- BTC/USD down over 5% over last week
- ETH/USD fared worse; down over 8%
Google Trends hasn’t continued slight downward trend over last 90 days.
NVT Ratio – 180 – This long-term cycle tracking ratio has move somewhat higher recently. The ratio is very high and suggests BTC is towards the end of long-term cycle.
NVT Signal -This short-term signal has fallen to 118, down from 123 three weeks ago.
In the original post introducing NVT Signal, 150 was indicated as an overbought signal.
Willy Woo also recently published a Tweet thread where he suggested BTC may go to $5500-5700 next.
CoinMetrics has provides great charting tools for a number of top cryptocurrencies. Kalvichkin’s NVT is a regular check for checking short term trading signals.
Kalvichkin’s NVT – Kalvichikin’s NVT has moved sideways recently.
Articles of Note
— CoinBase announced they are looking into adding new tokens. This transparent nature should alleviate allegations of insiders benefiting from the foresight of an impending addition to CoinBase’s exchange.
“Going forward, you should expect that we will make similar announcements about exploring the addition of multiple assets.”
Coinbase is Exploring Cardano, Basic Attention Token, Stellar Lumens, Zcash, and 0x
Coinbase The Coinbase Blog
“Today we are announcing that we’re exploring the addition of the following assets to Coinbase:Cardano (ADA)Basic Attention Token (BAT)Stellar Lumens (XLM)Zcash (ZEC)0x (ZRX)1
—– A discussion of the trading conditions and trends around BTC results in a general bearish sentiment.
“Despite declining daily transactions, NVT has begun to decrease, suggesting more on-chain value is being transmitted”
Bitcoin Price Analysis – Bearish in the interim
“Using a 30-day Kalichkin network value to transactions (NVT) ratio, BTC remains in the upper-third of its historical NVT value. NVT has not been this high since January 2015 but has begun to turn downward recently, which suggests increasing on-chain network usage based on the dollar amount being transacted. Additionally, inflection points in the NVT ratio can correlate with extreme highs or lows in price.2
–— Major League Baseball is launching a cryptokitties-like non-fungible token. Rather than digital baseball cards, these will be tied to specific in-game moments.
“Lucid Sight, a blockchain gaming company, is launching MLB Crypto Baseball, through a licensing deal with MLB”
MLB launching MLB Crypto Baseball game
Daniel RobertsSenior Writer finance.yahoo.com
“In MLB Crypto Baseball, users will pay in ether to buy digital avatars tied to specific moments in recent games. They can then sell the items, or in some cases, earn rewards and stickers. The game is a decentralized app, or “dApp.”3
— Kyle Samani of MultiCoin Capital discusses the Web 3 stack, including current status of various levels and what still needs to be built for blockchain/Dapps to gain serious traction.
“The dapp revolution will happen shortly after the Web3 stack achieves some level of usability, stability, and feature-completeness”
The Web3 Stack – Multicoin Capital
by Kyle Samani Multicoin Capital
“Interestingly, almost no one in crypto talks about decentralizing application hosting. This is particularly curious because this layer is centralized in basically every dapp today. It’s centralized either because the web server hosting the app is centralized, or because there’s a single download link to download the app and install it on the client device, pushing the ecosystem back towards the walled-garden model, which is by definition centralized. In an ideal world, the application host would be both decentralized and delivered just in time, a la modern web applications.4
— Augur, which allows anyone to bet on anything without a middleman, launched last week. It’s a project we’re watching closely.
“What distinguishes Augur from a traditional betting market is that no single party sits in the middle, meaning that users are likely to pay lower prices.”
Augur Is Live: Decentralized Prediction Market Launches After 2-Year Beta
CoinDesk David Floyd
“Now, the Forecast Foundation, the not-for-profit behind Augur’s development, has announced the launch of the long-awaited platform, which was accompanied by the release of the final version of the Augur application as open-source software.
The years-long delay in reaching this point may have been frustrating for token holders, but it has allowed the Augur team to aggressively vet their code through internal audits and a generous bug bounty program. Notably, Augur offered $200,000 for bugs that qualified as “critical” (though the team hasn’t announced any rewards larger than $5,000).5